The Business Confidence Index (ICE) dropped 0.8 points in December, reaching 90.7 points. It is the lowest level since April 2021, when the indicator stood at 89.6 points. In quarterly moving averages, the ICE fell by 3.6 points.
As a result, the indicator accumulates a retraction of 10.8 points in the fourth quarter of 2022, after 7.4 points in the previous three quarters. The data was released today (2), in Rio de Janeiro, by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre).
The institute’s economist, Viviane Seda Bittencourt, said that there was a slowdown in the fall of the indicator, given the governmental transition.
“Business confidence continued to fall for the third consecutive month, although at a lower intensity than in previous months. The perception of the current situation and perspectives remains in a waiting rhythm in the face of decisions on the conduct of the new government’s economic policy”, she said.
He added that the industrial sector is more optimistic, but the services sector had worse prospects.
“Despite a perception of improvement in the industrial sector related to a slight recovery in demand and reduction in inventories, the deterioration in the services sector was responsible for lowering confidence in December. Business confidence improves for more than 50% of the segments surveyed, but this is not enough to guarantee its sustainability in the coming months. The scenario of uncertainty contributes to this stoppage at the moment”, he argued.
Components
Among the ICE components, the Current Business Situation Index (ISA-E) and the Expectations Index (IE-E) did not change in December, remaining at 95.2 and 87.9 points, respectively. As a result, these indicators end 2022 below the neutral confidence level, which is considered to be 100 points.
By sector, in December the confidence of services and construction fell, while industry rose and trade was stable. In the analysis of diffusion, business confidence rose in 53% of the 49 segments that make up the indicator, registering greater dissemination than that observed in November.
