The 2025 Budget bill, sent to the National Congress on Friday night (30), foresees a small primary surplus of R$3.7 billion, equivalent to 0.03% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of wealth produced). The amount, however, does not consider the payment of R$44.1 billion in overdue court orders.
If the writs of execution (judicial debts with a final judgment) were included in the calculation, the Central Government – National Treasury, Social Security and Central Bank – would have a primary deficit of R$40.4 billion (0.33% of GDP) in 2025. At the end of 2023, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) allowed the exclusion of payments of precatórios in installments from the calculation of the primary result target by a 2021 constitutional amendment.
The primary result represents the deficit or surplus in government accounts without interest on public debt. Sent to Congress in April, the 2025 Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) project establishes a zero primary result (neither deficit nor surplus) for next year, with the Budget following this target. The new fiscal framework allows for a tolerance margin of 0.25 percentage points, which may vary between a 0.25 deficit and a 0.25 surplus in 2025.
Measures
To meet the goal of eliminating the deficit, the presidential message sent with the bill foresees that the government will continue with measures that seek to review tax benefits for the wealthiest population. The government will also continue to review spending. Last Wednesday (28), the Ministries of Finance and Planning detailed the measures to reduce mandatory spending in R$ 26 billion next year.
Regarding revenue, the presidential message mentioned measures that are being voted on or have already been approved by Congress. The highlights are Provisional Measure 1,227, sent in June, which limits the use of tax benefits and requires companies to detail the incentives used to the Federal Revenue Service, and Law 14,873/2024, which limited tax compensations, refunds of taxes allegedly overpaid by companies.
The text also highlights laws that came into force last year, but that will continue to increase revenue in 2025, such as the restitution of the tie-breaking vote in favor of the government in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (Carf) and the recovery of tax credits through the tax transactions mechanism, special negotiations between the government and debtor companies.
