The Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB) projected a 5.7% increase in exports next year compared to 2024. According to the entity’s estimate, sales abroad in 2025 should total US$358.828 billion.
That’s US$19.443 billion more than this year, since the export projection for 2024 is US$339.385 billion.
Regarding imports, the country is expected to purchase US$265.780 billion from abroad next year, against the US$264.171 billion projected for 2024.
The surplus calculated by AEB should be US$93.048 billion in 2025, an increase of 23.7% compared to the US$75.214 billion forecast for this year.
“The projections for foreign trade in 2025 signal apparent sustainability with a slight increase in prices and an increase in volumes, whose current forecasts indicate greater production of soybeans, corn, oil, beef, chicken meat, among others, however, with possibilities of adjustments in prices to lower levels than the current ones”, informs AEB.
The entity’s survey also points out that exports of Brazilian products have their main destination in neighboring markets in South America. “Although at the moment we are witnessing an aggressive commercial policy by China in this region, removing Brazil’s leadership in exports to its neighbors. ”
The AEB report also highlights some “particularities”. According to the document, oil exports are expected to reach US$44.360 billion in 2024, a record for a single product, “exceeding the US$43.078 billion forecast for soybeans” this year.
But, according to the study, “barring problems with a crop failure”, soybeans should regain their position as Brazil’s main exported product in 2025, with a projection of US$49.5 billion in sales abroad, with oil coming in second. second place, with US$44.1 billion.
As in previous years, soybeans, oil and ore are expected to account for 34.04% of total exports forecast for 2025, which means a small reduction compared to the likely 37.09% this year.
