Brazilian industry production fell 0.6% from October to November. It was the second consecutive month of decline. In October the sector had already fallen 0.2%. However, in the 11 months of 2024 as a whole, the industry accumulates an increase of 3.2% and, in 12 months, an expansion of 3%.
The data is part of the Monthly Industrial Survey, released this Wednesday (8) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). With the result, Brazilian industry is positioned 1.8% of the pre-pandemic level (February 2020) and 15.1% below the highest point ever recorded, in May 2011.
According to the research manager, André Macedo, the industry losses in October and November (accumulated 0.8%) are, in a way, the impact of issues such as the devaluation of the real against the dollar and the increase in the economy’s basic interest rate, the Selic.
“I don’t imagine that the increase in interest rates will already have a direct effect, because it started in September, but it clearly has an impact on the expectations of consumers and businesspeople”, he assesses.
Another factor that may have influenced the industrial decline is the increase in food prices, which has the effect of putting more strain on family budgets and reducing the search for consumer goods.
“This has some kind of impact on families’ disposable income and can have an impact on consumption decisions,” he says.
In comparison with November 2023, an increase of 1.7% was recorded in industrial production – the sixth consecutive expansion in this type of interannual comparison.
Analyzing the performance from October to November 2024, IBGE points out that 19 of the 25 industrial sectors were in the negative field. “It’s an important yellow sign”, warns Macedo.
The activities with the greatest negative influence were motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-11.5%), and coke (derived from coal), petroleum products and biofuels (-3.5%).
Macedo highlights that the double-digit drop in vehicle production still maintains a positive balance compared to the end of 2023.
“This does not take away the behavior that the activity had throughout the year. The level is 14.2% above 2023.”
The result between consecutive months, announced this Wednesday (-0.6%), is the lowest for a month of November since 2019, when there was a decrease of 2.3%.
