Brazilian industry production closed 2024 with a growth of 3.1% compared to 2023. The annual result is the third largest in the last 15 years and was pushed by factors such as increased employment and income. The data are part of the monthly industrial research, released on Wednesday (5) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The annual discharge was reached even after three months in a row of industrial retreat. In December, the production was 0.3%in the negative field, after falling in October (-0.2%) and November (-0.7%). The December result was 1.6% above the same period of 2023.
With the figures presented by IBGE, the national industry is 1.3% above the covid-19 pre-pound level of February 2020, however, 15.6% below the highest reached point, May 2011 . The current level of production is similar to December 2009.
The growth of 3.1% of 2024 exceeds 2023, which expanded 0.1%. In the last 15 years, it has only been behind 2010, which grew 10.2%, and 2021, when it expanded 3.9%, at a time of recovery after the initial impact of the pandemic. By 2020, there was a retreat of 4.5%, while in 2009, Brazilian industry experienced a 7.1% drop at a time when the world was undergoing a global economic crisis.
This represents that, unlike 2010 and 2021, the 2024 growth has not benefited from a fall comparison base.
Disseminated
The research manager, André Macedo, points out that industry expansion in 2024 was widely disseminated, with positive numbers in the four major economic categories (capital goods, intermediates, durable and general) and 20 of the 25 industrial branches surveyed.
“In general, the growth of the industrial sector in 2024 can be understood from some factors, such as the largest number of people incorporated by the labor market, the drop in the vacancy rate, increased wage mass and the increase in consumption Families, benefited by tax stimuli, higher income and evolution in the granting of credit, ”he explains.
In 2024, the country ended with an average unemployment rate of 6.6%the smallest level in the IBGE historical series.
Last quarter
The period of three straight months of retreat (December, November and October) added a loss of 1.2%. A movement of three monthly falls in a row had not happened since February and April 2021, when the accumulated fall was 5.3%.
In comparison between the fourth and third quarters of 2024, the industry fell 0.1%. In this type of quarterly comparison, it was the first drop since the third quarter of 2023.
The decrease in the rhythm of industry in the final three months of 2024 is explained, according to Macedo, by the “reduction in the confidence levels of families and entrepreneurs”.
“For a large part, by the squeeze in monetary policy, with the increase in interest rates from September 2024, the exchange depreciation [alta do dólar]impacting costs, and the increase of inflation, especially food, ”he says.
Economic scenario
In September 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) Central Bank started the discharge of the basic rateSelic, precisely with the objective of “cooling” the economy to combat inflation.
The rate that was 10.5% per year in early September is currently at 13.25%. Interest increase has as one of the main effects the increase of credit, either for families to consume or for companies to produce. Already the inflation ended the year at 4.83%, above the goal limit, up to 4.5%.
THE dollar was appreciated of 27% in 2024with high high movement in the last quarter, closing the year at R $ 6.18. Currently, foreign currency negotiates close to $ 5.80.
Macedo recalls that the highest point in industry in 2024 was in June. “From the second semester – more intensely in the last three months of the year – there is a lower movement for the industrial sector,” he details.
*Updated article at 10:37 am. for addition of information.
