The Brazilian economy grew 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter and accumulated an increase of 2.5% in the 12-month period. Specifically from August to September, the behavior was stable, that is, zero variation.
The data is part of the GDP Monitora monthly study prepared by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre) of FGV (Fundação Getulio Vargas), released this Tuesday (18).
The research makes estimates about the behavior of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), an indicator of all goods and services produced in the country.
The information between consecutive quarters and months is seasonally adjusted, that is, seasonal variations were excluded, so that it is possible to compare different periods.
In monetary terms, FGV estimates Brazilian GDP accumulated up to the third quarter at R$9.370 trillion.
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Factors
According to economist Juliana Trece, coordinator of the research, the services sector and household consumption, the largest components of GDP, remained stagnant, “and the other components contributed little to a stronger performance of the economy”.
When analyzing interannual data – which present less volatility than the periods immediately following – FGV finds that household consumption, which had been growing annually at practically above 3% since 2021, showed a visible slowdown throughout 2025, registering just 0.2% expansion in the third quarter, compared to the same period in 2024.
“Despite the slightly positive result, the consumption of goods showed a negative performance, both in durable and non-durable goods. The consumption of services, despite being positive, slowed down significantly in the last quarter”, highlights the study.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), an indicator that measures the economy’s productive capacity, fell 0.4% in the comparison between the third quarters of 2024 and 2025, greatly impacted by the weak behavior of the machinery and equipment sector. It is the first drop since the moving quarter ended in January 2023.
Exports grew 7%, in the same interannual comparison period. It is the biggest increase since the moving quarter ending in May 2024. There was growth in all groups of exported products, with emphasis on those in the extractive industry, which contributed around 44% to total export growth.
Official result
The GDP Monitor is one of the studies that serve as a thermometer for the Brazilian economy.
Another survey is the Central Bank’s economic activity index (IBC-BR), released on Monday (17), which indicated declines of 0.2% from August to September and 0.9% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. In the last 12 months, there was an expansion of 3%.
The official GDP result is presented quarterly by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The next release will be for the third quarter of 2025, on December 4th.
