The Brazilian government is following with attention and concern the tariff reform approved by the Mexican Congress, which foresees the application of tariffs of up to 50% on imports from countries without a free trade agreement with Mexico. 
In a joint note released this Friday (12), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Itamaraty) and the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC) informed that they await the publication of the final text of the law to assess the impacts on Brazilian exports.
Approved on Thursday (11), the Mexican measure establishes rates between 5% and 50% on around 1,500 products from 17 strategic sectors, such as automobiles and auto parts, clothing, plastics, steel and household appliances. In addition to Brazil, countries such as China, India, South Korea, Russia and South Africa will also be affected. The new tariffs are expected to come into force from January 1st.
According to the Brazilian government, the automotive sector tends to be little impacted, as Brazil and Mexico maintain a sectoral free trade agreement. Still, there is concern that the tariff increase could reduce existing bilateral preferences in other segments and negatively affect trade and investment between the two countries, depending on the final lists of products that will be published.
“Brazil has maintained contact with Mexican authorities to discuss the possible effects of tariff changes,” states the joint note.
The government emphasizes that the bilateral relationship is marked by frank dialogue and a shared strategic vision and defends that unilateral decisions with commercial impact are analyzed in light of the commitment to predictability, legal certainty and deepening productive integration.
The Brazilian government reiterated that it will continue to engage in constructive dialogue with Mexico to preserve the cooperative environment and ensure favorable conditions for trade and investment between the two countries.
The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) estimates that up to 15% of Brazilian exports to Mexico could be affected. For the entity, the moment requires intensification of bilateral dialogue.
Sensitive moment
The project was approved urgently in the Mexican Senate, with 76 votes in favor, five against and 35 abstentions. Parliamentarians who abstained criticized the accelerated processing of the proposal and pointed out the risk of inflationary impact. The president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, supports the initiative and is expected to sanction the law in the coming days.
The decision comes at a sensitive time for Mexico, on the eve of the review, scheduled for 2026, of the free trade agreement with the United States and Canada. US President Donald Trump has been putting pressure on the Mexican government, accusing the country of serving as a route for Chinese products to enter the United States. The Chinese government criticized the measure and stated that protectionism brings harm to the global economy.
Although the Mexican government claims that the law only affects countries without broad trade agreements, Brazil maintains sectoral understandings with Mexico. Currently, the country is the destination for 2.25% of Brazilian exports, but occupies sixth place among the main markets from January to November 2025, with around US$7 million exported in the period.
