The behavior of the National Government’s Fund in recent weeks became an alert signal for economic analysts, after the availability balances of the National Treasury Directorate (DTN) In the Bank of the Republic they will play background, to stay in historical minimums.
According to official reports, this indicator, which is nothing other than the money that the State effectively has to execute its daily expense, has remained between high and low, marking some transient peaks that are not consolidated in a solid recovery, which allows you to think about a more optimal diversification of public spending.
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The most revealing fact is that of August 8, 2025, when the balance of the nation reached Just $ 1.8 billion, the lowest level in recent history. That figure, which alone reflects fiscal narrowness, becomes even more worrying when compared to the same day of 2024, when the treasure had $ 12.9 billion in box.
This means that in just one year, the indicator was reduced by 86%, leaving a deep deterioration in the liquidity of the State and reinforcing the idea that it is necessary to start spending less, both in the short, as in the medium and long term.
The Petro government has failed to recover this indicator, which requires starting to spend less.
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Between peaks and falls
Portfolio was given the task again to review the daily registration of the last weeks, which show the magnitude of volatility and found that the dynamics of this indicator is erratic and that, for example, at the end of July it already gave signs of exhaustion, since $ 10.8 billion on July 25 was passed to $ 7.8 billion on the same 31 of the same month, that is to saya 28% setback in less than a week, which marked the prelude to what would come in August.
Subsequently, in the first days of the eighth month, the balance was around $ 6.3 billion. However, on August 8 it collapsed to $ 1.8 billion, a figure that barely reached to cover two days of government operation, to later have a slight recovery, which made between August 11 and 15 the box would range between $ 2.5 and $ 4.3 billion, still well below the start levels of the month.
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The strong rebound arrived on August 19 and 20, when the resources climbed $ 11 and $ 13.3 billion, respectively, although the relief was ephemeral and by August 22 the balances had fallen to $ 7.3 billion and towards the end of the month they stabilized around $ 7.4 billion.
Already in September, the trend was again descending and on September 1 the treasure had $ 7 billion, but in just four days that figure was reduced to $ 3.4 billion, which represents a 51% decrease and if compared to the same date of 2024, when the box was in $ 10 billion, it puts an alarming difference that can be read easy as a year -on -year fall of 66%.
The Petro government has failed to recover this indicator, which requires starting to spend less.
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Why is the box so low?
To better understand what happens with these deposits, it must be said that the collapse of availability does not respond solely to an overflowing expense or a poor liquidity administration. According to the Economic Research Team of Banco de Bogotá, behind the minimum August Historic There was an additional factor that were debt management operations.
“The movement occurs in the midst of public credit operations in which box has been sacrificed to accumulate public debt titles, dollars and other assets for their liabilities management,” they explained.
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In other words, the government decided to prioritize the accumulation of financial instruments necessary to fulfill its debt commitments, even at the cost of leaving the box at minimum levels; Raising a paradox in which on the one hand, having reserves of titles and currencies strengthens the state’s ability to meet maturities and reduce refinancing risks.
But, on the other, it limits immediate liquidity to finance current spending; knowing that it is precisely that liquidity that measures the balance of availability in the Bank of the Republic.
The Petro government has failed to recover this indicator, which requires starting to spend less.
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The August paradox
From the bank of Bogotá they also said that what happened in August is not less if it is taken into account that the seasonal context reinforces the severity of the data, since traditionally, this is the second month of lower daily expenditure of the government, with a median adjusted to 2025 of just $ 0.88 billion per day. That is, in theory it is a light month in terms of execution of resources.
However, in 2025 the available box barely reached to cover two days of operation, even in a period of low expenditure demand; Reflecting the magnitude of the current vulnerability, since if in a month of relative calm the box is at the limit, what can happen in months of greater pressure such as October or December, when large budgetary disbursements are concentrated?
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On the other hand, the contrast with 2024 is overwhelming, since in August and September of that year, The DTN balances moved between $ 12 and $ 16 billion, with punctual falls to the $ 10 billion but always above the two digits.
For example, between August 30 and September 6, 2024, it fluctuated between $ 15.4 and $ 11.2 billion and a year later, on those same dates, balances moved between $ 7.4 and $ 3.4 billion. In this way, it can be said that the difference is not only of numbers, but of realities in which in 2024 the treasure had a wide margin to maneuver, while in 2025 it operates to the edge of the knife.
The Petro government has failed to recover this indicator, which requires starting to spend less.
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From now on, the big question is whether the National Treasury will rebuild its box before the months of greatest expense arrive, as is the case of October and December, which concentrate payments of payroll, social transfers, turns to territorial entities and, in addition, debt maturities. Face These commitments with balances of just $ 3 or $ 4 billion would be extremely risky.
Finally, for experts, the narrowness of the box is not just a technical fact, since it has macroeconomic implications such as a lower margin of maneuver to face clashes, greater pressure on the internal debt market and a signal of fragility for investors and risk rating.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
