Divided by two. In just four months, the value of bitcoin went from $122,000 to $61,000 on February 6. As if he had been inflated with hormones since the return of donald trump to the White House, the most famous of cryptocurrencies has lost almost all the value acquired since the billionaire’s re-election. Although its price has risen slightly since then, it has stagnated around $70,000. Bitcoin, an unstable asset since its inception, is often considered an indicator of the overall state of cryptocurrencies.
Loss of trust
“Cryptocurrencies are bubbles,” says Bruno Biais, professor of Finance and Economics at the Paris School of Higher Studies of Commerce (HEC). “This does not mean that they are bad, useless to society or fatally destined to disappear. It means that their value does not reflect the value of real assets.” In the specific case of bitcoin, the researcher recalls that it is “very risky” and that one must “expect possible price drops that can be brutal.”
“Center of gravity of the cryptographic ecosystem,” recalls Jézabel Couppey-Soubeyran, economist and professor at the Paris 1 University, “bitcoin acts as a barometer of the general state of speculative cryptocurrencies. In fact, the values of Ethereum or XRP have also plummeted since the summer of 2025, as have 90 of the top 100 virtual currencies.”
In a context of tensions economic and geopolitical, risk aversion towards technology has skyrocketed. “In this context of market nervousness regarding risk assets, including technology and bitcoin, many investors are abandoning this asset class,” explains Nathalie Janson, associate professor of economics at NEOMA Business School.
Compounding this, many related investments have exacerbated losses. Attracted by the prospect of significant profits, buyers take out loans and go into debt to gamble sums that exceed their real capital. If prices fall, the reaction is brutal. “A vicious circle,” says Jézabel Couppey-Soubeyran. “Investments made with a strong leverage effect can, in a situation like this of falling prices, fuel sales of bitcoins and therefore fuel the fall in prices.”
The more prices fall, the more those who have the most to lose sell, and so on. Concern and disillusionment around the speculative bubble of cryptocurrencies are installed after the euphoria fueled last year by the occupant of the White House.
The crypto president
“Donald Trump helped fuel the bubble,” argues Xavier Timbeau, director of the French Observatory of Economic Situation. And rightly so, as the 47th president of the United States has been actively involved in inflating the value of bitcoins since his return to power. In March 2025, the billionaire stated his intention to turn his country into the “crypto capital of the world.” A surprising turn, considering his critical positions on virtual currencies during his first term.
After some skillful political calculations, the businessman realized that gathering around him the players in the world of cryptocurrencies would bring him significant support for his campaign, while opening up new perspectives for personal enrichment. With major regulatory easing, private invitations to the White House, and promises to create a strategic bitcoin reserve, Donald Trump has endeared himself to several industry influencers.
“His election was greeted with great hope by the defenders of cryptocurrencies, since he presented himself as their defender,” highlights Jean-Paul Delahaye, computer scientist, mathematician and professor at the University of Lille 1. Since then, “trust in him has eroded,” notes the researcher.
Political interference, diplomatic threats, tariff wars… Donald Trump is a major agent of global instability. Its strategic reserve has not yet met expectations either. “There has been no change,” summarizes Ludovic Desmedt, professor of Economics at the University of Burgundy. “For a time, Trump promised that there would be a public treasury fueled by bitcoins, which would have generated global demand. That has not been the case at all. It is not a strategic asset.” At the moment, the strategic reserve consists only of seized or confiscated assets.
The speeches full of hope at the beginning of his second term have given way to political pragmatism. When questioned about this issue in Congress, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on February 4 that the Government would not help bitcoin to stop the bleeding. In the absence of support, bitcoin’s volatility could push investors toward another product.
In search of stability
The GENIUS Act, which came into force in July 2025, is a pioneering US law in the field and aims to regulate the stablecoin market, whose value practically does not fluctuate. The application of this law would have initiated “a shift in the center of gravity of the cryptographic ecosystem,” Jézabel Couppey-Soubeyran assumes. Without replacing unstable currencies, such as bitcoin, stablecoins seem to be a more reassuring alternative for most investors. “It is a gateway to the world of cryptocurrencies, but more secure and stable,” agrees Ludovic Desmedt.
Far from being the main cause of the recent collapse in the price of bitcoin, the emergence of stablecoins, such as Tether, could be a factor that amplifies this decline. In November 2025, the Binance exchange saw a significant increase in reserves in stablecoins, while also seeing its number of Ethereum and bitcoins fall. A rather paradoxical change of course.
Tied to national currencies and issued by central entities, stablecoins “completely break with the original discourse of cryptocurrencies, which were initially presented as a kind of disruptive monetary innovation and as an alternative to the official currency,” says Jézabel Couppey-Soubeyran.
Although the revolutionary philosophy behind bitcoin still exists in certain circles of converts, the massive development of speculation around the currency denatures the initial project of Satoshi Nakamoto, creator of the digital currency. Today, most large investors in the sector do not adhere to the crypto ideology as such. “When BlackRock buys bitcoins, it is not because it distrusts financial institutions or financial intermediaries, but because it believes it will make money,” says Bruno Biais.
Along the way, the “bitcoin ideology” has dissolved in the frenzy of capitalism. It remains to be seen whether this slow fragmentation will spell the end for unstable cryptocurrencies.
The final fall?
Most of the researchers questioned agree in highlighting the theoretical impossibility of predicting the future of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. One thing is certain: this fall is far from being an isolated phenomenon since the appearance of the currency in 2009. “Bitcoin is a series of 17 seasons, with dramatic twists every six months or every year,” ironically Ludovic Desmedt.
The researcher does not see this new crisis as the end of bitcoin, but rather a sign of the “deflation” of the bubble. “This fall has been seen coming for a long time. But the cryptocurrency sector is changing and recovers from each crisis thanks to different pillars, among them the attractiveness of a stateless currency at a time when states are discredited,” agrees Xavier Timbeau. In fact, the decline has stopped for a few days. The value of bitcoin appears to have reached a plateau.
Nathalie Janson recalls that, despite the brutality of the fall, the value of bitcoin is still far from the minimums to which it had fallen after the crisis of the giant FTX. Let us remember that, after the bankruptcy of Sam Bankman-Fried’s company, all cryptocurrencies were greatly affected. The price of bitcoin fell by 75% before gradually recovering. With each drop, the coin never drops below the previous low.
Therefore, there is little chance of bitcoin evaporating. This new depreciation, after an explosion in value, sounds like a wake-up call for many investors. “The magnitude of the fall in prices causes forced or panic selling, and undoubtedly some bankruptcies that will leave holders of small portfolios bankrupt,” says Xavier Timbeau.
Bitcoin’s credibility is likely to be tarnished by this passing storm. But the defenders of the currency with the golden B are not willing to disappear, either because they continue to subscribe to the philosophy of the founder or because they continue to see in it an opportunity to get rich.
