This is how things are in the world, if Donald Trump, within his aggressive speech, seems to wink slightly at Mexico in commercial matters, the exchange rate immediately reacts and drops noticeably in minutes.
That is precisely what must be taken as the main variable of these times, the uncertainty caused by political decisions.
Not only those of Donald Trump, which have global reach, but also the internal authoritarian policies that, since a qualified majority in Congress was artificially and deceitfully constituted, have also sown distrust. And since this insecurity intersects with everything, it must be related to the current levels of inflation in Mexico.
Great news to know that the National Consumer Price Index maintained a downward trend in the first half of this month of January and that, according to Inegi data, it stands at 3.69% annually, which conforms to the famous chant of the goal of 3.0% more, minus one percentage point.
Hand in hand with the other crucial inflationary data of an underlying index at 3.72% annually until the first half of January, although there is a chip in its downward trend.
The point is that there would be two ways to read current inflation levels.
One, the bells ringing and justifying that from now on they have to lower interest rates rapidly since the disinflationary goal has already been met.
And then yes, as Donald Trump just said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, demand that the central bank immediately lower interest rates around the world.
Until now, the incomplete Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico is preparing to complete this path of a half percentage point decrease in the reference rate, because that is what the Ministry of Finance would undoubtedly like to see.
But there is another way to read the current inflation data and that is with the caution of understanding that the swallow of a low inflation data does not yet make a summer of price stability.
Many internal factors persist, such as financial imbalances, pressure for salary increases or even insecurity.
In addition to Donald Trump, the one who yesterday said that everything goes well with Mexico in trade matters, is the same one who tomorrow can say the opposite and cause an exchange rate depreciation and apply trade tariffs that fuel high inflation.
The Bank of Mexico, with its incomplete governing body, has already sent the message that its thing is to be a white dove and take advantage of the margin between inflation and the reference rate, and incidentally with the level of rates in the United States.
It is not bad as long as they do not appear weak, open-minded, and do not pay attention to the signals that float in the environment and that say that today’s good inflation data is not yet a triumph and that things can turn around. just towards the negative side that no one would want to see.
