The Central Reserve Bank (BCR) reported today that the growth forecast for the GDP non-primary for 2022 in Peru from 3.1% to 3.3% and that of private consumption from 4.1% to 4.2%.
The president of the BCR, Julio Velarde, referred that the upward adjustment of the non-primary GDP responds to the higher expected growth of manufacturing of 3.6% for this year versus the previous estimate of 2.4%.
Likewise, the growth forecast for the electricity and water sector was raised from 2.3% to 3%.
Projection to 2023
In addition, growth in 2022 and 2023 would be lower than forecast in the June report due to a less favorable international environment, lower estimates of primary production and the more gradual recovery of consumer confidence.
For the following year, the economist reported that the growth projection for the Peruvian economy was reduced from 3.1% to 3%. Likewise, the non-primary GDP growth projection was reduced from 2.5% to 2.3%.
“It is not a good year that is coming but we do not expect it to be catastrophic”predicted the economist in the framework of the presentation of the September Inflation Report.
Velarde foresaw that Peru would grow above the average for the region.
“In 2023, Peru is expected to maintain growth above the regional average with an enviable fiscal deficit, even for developed countries, of 2%, and it would be the second lowest in the region, after Chile with 1.5%”I note.
“There are fears that several major world economies will slow down or go into recession next year. The projections for the Eurozone for this third and fourth quarters are of zero growth. In the case of Germany, negative growth is expected in the fourth quarter, and in the first and second of next year. The United Kingdom is almost in stagflation, properly speaking, with double-digit inflation with falling GDP,” Velarde said.
The BCRP also indicated that private investment would register zero growth this year and 1.8% in 2023, in a scenario of weakened business confidence and less momentum in self-construction.
