Despite the fact that the Minister of Economy and Finance, Pedro Francke, recently announced that he hopes that the private investment grow between 0% and 2% this year, other projections point to a drop in this.
In this sense, BBVA Research projected that in 2022 this indicator would fall 5.4%, and that it would only grow in 2023, but only 1.6% compared to this year.
Although in October 2021 the entity estimated that this year private investment would fall 9.7%, its chief economist, Hugo Pereaexplained that this variation is due to the fact that in the mentioned month there was more uncertainty.
However, he stated that business confidence still remains in the pessimistic section, which motivates the projection to remain negative.
economic growth
On the other hand, he indicated that they maintain the projection that this year the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow only 2.3%.
For 2023, BBVA Research forecasts that GDP growth will be 3% and for the 2024-2026 period 2.5%.
In this regard, Perea indicated that this suggests that the impact of the pandemic could leave some permanent problems in the country.
Likewise, he rejected the proposals that are in Congress that propose a new withdrawal of the individual accounts of the AFP funds.
“Today we have an economy in the process of recovery, where employment is recovering and possibly the consumption of families as of this year reflects more wage income from recovery of employment and less from indebtedness”said Perea, who is also a columnist for Peru21.
Although he said that a measure like this can accelerate growth today, it leaves a problem in the following years “that the authorities will have to solve in the future.”
“What is going to be done with the people who have been left without pensions? This means more tax burden for generations to come. A new withdrawal of funds can generate temporary, transitory, short-term relief, which is suddenly no longer necessary in an economy that has been recovering, ”he stressed.
Inflation
Regarding inflation, which in 2021 closed at 6.4%, Perea indicated that it is expected to reach a peak of 7.4% in April due to school expenses, to close the year at 3.4%, still above the target range of the Central Bank of Reserve (between 1% and 3%).
For its part, Scotiabank projected inflation of 4.2% for 2022, which contemplates a rate of between 6% and 7% in the first half of the year.
This estimate takes into account that the rise in global prices in 2021 will not be reversed, “but it will not accelerate either.” “Inflation is an issue that will probably be an important part of the political agenda this year,” indicates the financial entity.
Keep in mind
-BBVA Research estimated that public investment would only advance 2.2% this year.
-The Exporters Association calculates that exports will increase 5% in 2022 and will total US$57.5 billion.
