Banco de México expects to reach the point goal of 3% in the third quarter of 2026.
For Pamela Diaz, BNP Paribas economist, the decision to lower the rate at 50 points responds to the Central Bank observing a new deflationary process.
“It is not that Banxico is cutting the rate in 50 base points to stimulate the economy, but considers that this economic slowdown, given the inflation profile, which is a profile where inflation in services is having a lot of weight, they consider this I could support inflation to fall or go faster to its 3%target, “said the specialist.
The threat of the United States to impose tariffs, which was suspended for a month, also helped the Central Bank execute the cut of this magnitude.
“This cut was timely, timely in the sense of opportunist, in the sense that it was announced, that the exchange rate was calm, that the market was waiting for it. Then, they took the opportunity,” Gonzali added.
If the economic conditions continue with low inflation and without tariffs on the part of the United States, specialists expect the cuts to the rate to continue in the first half of the year before Banxico pauses.
With this, the central bank is expected to close the year with a rate of 8.5% although if the conditions allow it could be an even lower rate.
“If the Fed later lowers its rate in December, then Banxico probably accompanies it. But the pause is because of the fact that the Fed is technically in pause and closing both the differential could be counterproductive,” added Franklin’s specialists Templeton
