The Bank of Mexico estimates that Mexico’s growth next year will be just 1.2%.
The banks’ estimates suggest that credit will begin with less dynamism in the first quarter of 2025, in part, because as it is the first year of the government, there is less economic activity.
“Credit grows at a multiple of the country’s growth; when the country’s growth decreases, credit normally decreases. However, with the drop in the interest rate there may be certain clients who continue taking credit with lower rates, especially in the productive sector,” said Julio Carranza, president of the ABM.
Carranza highlighted that if the central bank closes the year with the rate at 10%, and at 8% by 2025, it is possible that the productive sector will take advantage, although consumer credit could slow down the dynamism.
In addition, banking profits, which in past years recorded historic figures, could decline due to the economic cycle of lower interest rates.
“Definitely a drop in the interest rate is a headwind for the solidity and profits of banks; however, they do not always have to do with them; they have to do with reserves and operating costs: yes we have headwinds but we are trying to be more efficient,” said Jorge Arce, general director of HSBC Mexico.
