The Central Bank (BC) predicts that the volume of bank credit will grow 10.6% this year and 9.6% in 2025. The projections of the Inflation Reporta quarterly publication by the BC, released this Thursday (19), are lower compared to the previous report, when increases of 11.1% were predicted in 2024 and 10.3% next year.
“The revision in projections considered, in particular, the more restrictive monetary policy scenario [alta dos juros] and the reassessment of the trajectory of financing with targeted resources, which prevailed over expectations of greater growth in economic activity and a warmer job market”, explained the BC.
The main change in the credit projection in 2024 was the reduction in the growth of the segment of legal entities with earmarked resources. Targeted credit has rules defined by the government and is basically intended for the housing, rural, infrastructure and microcredit sectors.
“The expected growth for this portfolio decreased due to the revaluation of rural credit and loans from the Solidarity Credit to Rio Grande do Sul, which have evolved below previously expected levels”, says the report.
Regarding free credit, the increase in expected growth in the corporate segment offset the decrease in that for individuals. Free credit is one in which banks have the autonomy to lend money raised in the market and define the interest rates charged to customers.
In October, the stock of all loans granted by banks in the National Financial System (SFN) was R$6.3 trillion, with R$2.4 trillion for legal entities and R$3.9 trillion for families. Credit expanded to the non-financial sector – which is credit available to companies, families and governments, regardless of the source (banking, bond market or external debt) – reached R$17.9 in October this year: R$6, 3 trillion for companies and R$4.2 trillion for legal entities.
2025
The drop in the credit projection in 2025 mainly reflected the decrease in the growth in the balance of loans with free resources to families. “The effects of tightening monetary policy should be concentrated next year, especially affecting free credit operations,” explained the BC.
The recent rise in the dollar and the uncertainties surrounding inflation and the global economy made the BC increase the pace of raising the economy’s basic interest rate, the Selic, at the last meeting of the year, on December 11th. She was set at 12.25% per year. The agency reported that it will increaseaxa Selic by one percentage point in the next two meetings, in January and March, if the scenarios are confirmed.
This was the third consecutive increase in the Selic rate and the increase consolidates a cycle of contraction in monetary policy to try to contain the rise in inflation.
In the case of the free credit portfolio for companies, growth was maintained for 2025, but at a lower level than that of the individual portfolio. In the targeted segment, the more restrictive supply conditions for real estate financing and the more restrained rural credit should affect both operations with individuals and companies.
External accounts
In external accounts, the projection is for a significant increase in the deficit in current transactions between 2023 and 2024 and a more modest increase between 2024 and 2025. Current transactions are purchases and sales of goods and services and income transfers with other countries.
However, according to the BC, the deficit in current transactions in these years should remain lower than the net flow of direct investment in the country (IDP), which are external resources invested in the productive sector, and are usually long-term investments. The IDP accumulated in 12 months totaled US$66 billion in October 2024, while the current account deficit in the 12 months ending in that month totaled US$49.2 billion.
The projection for the current account deficit in 2024 was revised slightly upwards, from US$51 billion to US$54 billion. The revision reflects the expectation of a lower trade balance, mainly due to greater imports. Projections for service accounts (international travel, transportation, equipment rental and insurance, among others) and primary income (profits and dividends, interest payments and salaries) remained relatively stable.
The projection for the net flow of IDP was maintained since the previous report at US$70 billion. “The estimate considers the recovery throughout the year of the capital participation component, associated with profits that are reinvested in the country”, explained the BC.
For 2025, projections for external accounts also underwent small changes compared to the previous report, to US$58 billion. According to the BC, the changes were modest in all accounts, but with emphasis on net interest expenses in the primary income account.
“Despite the prospect of a reduction in interest rates in the United States of America over the projection horizon in relation to what was in force in 2023, the average cost of the debt stock should increase due to the rollover of long-term loans at interest rates higher than when originated”, explained the Central Bank.
The IDP should remain stable at US$70 billion in 2025. “The good outlook for exports and the pace of domestic activity favor foreign capital contributions to companies in the country”, predicts the report.
