Arce, Evo and everyone’s honeymoon!

There are usually three periods during the administration of a mayor, governor, or president. The first period is the honeymoon or full legitimacy. During this period, everything is nice. Everyone applauds. The second period is that of delegitimization or collapse: criticism begins. The time of joy has passed. Your mistakes begin to be noticed. The third period is decisive. It is the period of stability. It occurs when you overcome this second and dramatic phase of delegitimization and you remain as a government authority until the end of your administration: you have lost your legitimacy, but you can continue governing! That is, you go from the honeymoon to delegitimization or potential fall and, if you overcome this second obstacle, you move on to the period of stability. That is the cycle of a politician in charge of a government.

What do we see with Luis Arce? Let’s go back a little. What times did Carlos Mesa live? He lived through the honeymoon period. Hopes were pinned on his government, after Sánchez de Lozada’s dismissal. Everything was optimistic. It didn’t last long. He went from the honeymoon to delegitimization quickly and stayed there. He couldn’t make the Olympic leap towards the stabilization phase. What did we see with Jeanine? Honeymoon and Revilla and Samuel’s rapprochement with his government, honeyed by the honey. They were naive. They confused that first glorious moment, believing it to be unlimited. Mistake! The second moment would come, sooner or later! And it came, of course. What was the result? Being forced to resign at the height of delegitimization. She never found stability.

What did we see with Evo? His period of legitimacy or honeymoon was immense, but dual: one part of the country idolized him with the same fervor that the other part repudiated him. His fall was imminent, trapped in a heated and inevitable conflict with the “half moon”. He won in 2009, moving on to the third phase, that of stabilization! Previously, they wanted to take advantage of his collapse by launching a recall referendum in 2008. It was a clumsy initiative, but it must be recognized that Morales was bogged down in the mud of this second moment. It could have been his end, stuck in that second moment with the misfortune of not being able to get around it. Evo was able to overcome it, and even inaugurated a fourth moment: that of consolidation that made him president again in 2014. Great: he went from the electoral honeymoon of 2005/6 – brief, but intense – to the delegitimization of half the country in 2006-2009, to stabilization in 2009 and to consolidation in 2014.

Other examples: Goni in 2002. His honeymoon was meager and his sudden and constant delegitimization until he got on a plane and fled to the United States. More? Yes, and it must be pointed out: the firmness of a system, and I am referring to the democratic system, allowed us to transcend that second fateful moment: Víctor Paz went through the three phases from 1985 to 1989 and finished his mandate, as did Jaime Paz from 1989 to 1993 and Sánchez de Lozada himself from 1993 to 1997. Banzer already had it complicated: his honeymoon was minimal, his delegitimization permanent and his stabilization weak and unstable. Only his own death paved the way for an immediate re-legitimization at the hands of Tuto Quiroga. On the verge of turning his honeymoon into the second phase of delegitimization, this young president finished his brief mandate. This fateful moment only grazed him without “rising” to the fall phase. Something similar happened with Eduardo Rodríguez Veltzé: he took care to take advantage of his honeymoon waning quarter by calling elections. Sensible.

Why am I making this recount? To find out where Luis Arce is. The answer is beyond any doubt: he is in the second moment of accelerated debacle. He felt immune during the first two years and perhaps a little longer. A serious mistake. The honey of power is not eternal. They suffer a definitive blow and all that remains is to overcome the crisis by moving towards stabilization. We have already said it, neither Siles, Mesa or Jeanine managed to do so. And Arce? Our first president pulled an ace out of his sleeve: he called for a dull referendum. What did he seek to do? Stop the fall. He knows that he cannot return to that idyllic first moment of honey, and he knows, with equal certainty, that he cannot make the triumphant leap and advance towards the third moment. What does he do? Anchor himself in the moment of collapse, avoiding the collapse. Wow, it sounds funny, but it is not. It is an oxygen valve that allows him to breathe in a scenario of evident collapse. Arce has stopped the usual march towards collapse by filling up with air. A dense and almost unbreathable air, but air at last. Its situation is dramatic: either it sinks in this second phase or it prolongs it. Only a (gas) miracle could push it towards the third phase of stabilization. Will it last?