The July Development Financial Opinion Survey (EOF) among the analysts of the different entities showed that they lowered their economic growth expectations for this year from 2.6% to 2.5%, according to the sample of the previous month, and They also considered that there will be a slight rebound in inflation.
(Read more: Fintech tripled income and, in digital credit, low growth)
In July, The prognosis of economic growth for 2025 It was in a range between 2.4% and 2.6%, with 2.5% in medium response (decreasing compared to 2.6% in the June edition), the EOF said.
For its part, the median by 2026 stood at 2.9%, placing in a range between 2.7%and 3.0%. The growth expectations of the second quarter of 2025 were located in a range between 2.1% and 2.5%, COn 2.4% as a medium response (staying stable in front of the June edition). For its part, the growth forecast for the third quarter of 2025 was 2.6%.
In June, annual inflation stood at 4.82%, below the analysts prognosis (4.91%). In July EOF, analysts consider inflation to be 4.8%, in a range between 4.77%and 4.83%.
Analysts expect that in December inflation closes at 4.79% (Increasing versus 4.78% of the June edition), so market expectations remain outside the target range of the Bank of the Republic (between 2% and 4%) in 2025.
(Read more: the percentage of people who hope to pay all the credits) upload
Finance and economic growth.
Interest rates
In June 2025, the Board of Directors of the Bank of the Republic decided to keep the monetary intervention rate in 9.25%. The next meeting in which a decision on the rate will be made will be July 31.
For July and October, Analysts expect the intervention rate to be 9% and 8.5%respectively. They also anticipate that the intervention rate is 8.5% in December 2025 (being stable against the previous month).
In the exchange market it must be said that in Junethe exchange rate closed at $ 4,070, with a monthly appreciation of 1.9%, reaching its maximum value of the month on June 12 ($ 4,191) and its minimum value on June 27 ($ 4,043).
The observed data was $ 125 less than expected in the June survey ($ 4,195). In July, analysts consulted for EOF consider that The exchange rate will be located in a range between $ 4,002 and $ 4,053, with $ 4,025 as a medium response.
By December 2025, analysts expect a exchange rate of $ 4,190, which represents a fall against the prognosis of the previous month ($ 490).
(Read more: the three challenges that the financial system has to prevent money laundering)
Interest rates
When investing
In July, fiscal policy was shown as the most relevant aspect when investing, being chosen by 63% of analysts (compared to 60.9% in the previous month). The sociopolitical conditions were second with 18.5% of the participation (compared to 26.1%, in the previous month). These are followed by external factors and monetary policy with 14.8% and 3.7% (compared to 8.7% and 0%, respectively, in the previous month). On the other hand, security conditions decreased from 4.4% to 0% and economic growth remained at 0%.
Faced with June, portfolios administrators increased their preferences by 6 of the 12 assets analyzed in the survey, which includes the fixed fee, local actions, private debt at a fixed rate, foreign bonds, international actions and the tes in UVR. On the contrary, a decrease in preferences was evidenced for the private debt indexed to the IBRprivate capital funds, cash, ‘commodities’, private debt indexed to DTF and private debt indexed to IPC.
The EOF consults analysts on the three actions that they consider more attractive within those that make up the MSCI Colcap index. In July, the titles preferred by analysts were the preferential of the Cibst group and the ordinary Sura group, when selected, in both cases, by 41.7% of analysts. This is followed by the preferential action of Davivienda, the ordinary of the Cibest Group and Bogotá Energy Group.
(More news: less safe, more risk: insurance industry cools because of tariffs)
Holman Rodríguez Martínez
Portfolio journalist
