This March 3, the Dane will release the inflation data for February, and although analysts expect it to be a month with significant increases in areas such as education and transportation, the general expectation is that the annual data remains close to that registered in January and some do not even rule out a slight setback.
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The Survey of Expectations of the Bank of the Republic for February, in which 38 entities participated, evidenced that expects a growth of 1.62% for the increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in February, with a minimum forecast of 0.78% and a maximum of 2.1%.
Likewise, the analysts consulted in the latest Fedesarrollo Financial Opinion Survey (EOF) indicated that annual inflation will be located on average at 13.24% (in a range between 13.07% and 13.31%).
According to Camilo Pérez, director of economic research at Banco de Bogotá, during February the items of education, transportation and rental housing will be the ones that push upwards.
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“We believe that inflation will peak this month or the next, but core inflation, or that which excludes volatile components, will take a few more months to peak“Perez said. Banco de Bogotá maintains a monthly forecast of 1.72%, and an annual forecast of 13.35%.
“In February it is expected that the pressures of indexed goods and services will be seen in a more pronounced way. Education, for example, could register one of the largest increases, with the start of the school year and the increase in enrollment and school products,” said Alejandro Reyes, chief economist at BBVA Research, which estimates 1.65% monthly and 13.3% annually.
On the other hand, Munir Jalil, chief economist of BTG Pactual for the Andean region, He assured that the monthly inflation for February will be 1.59% and the annual figure 13.2%.
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“It is possible that we will see a somewhat lower figure, due to food. During the month, the expected food inflation decreased a bit”he assured. According to Jalil, in Colombia an inflation peak will not be seen as such, “but a plateau”, several months in which inflation will remain in a similar range and after April it will drop again.
In the case of Itauthe projection is 1.51% monthly and 13.12% annually, while in Scotiabank Colpatria it is 1.78% for the increase in prices for the month, with which the CPI would reach 13.41% in its annual figure.
LAURA LUCIA BECERRA ELEJALDE
Portfolio Journalist
