Since last year, Banxico estimated that inflation would converge to 3% in the third quarter of 2026, but analysts see this as impossible and expect that this year general inflation will close above 4%.
“Beyond trying to anchor expectations, they are eroding the credibility of their forecasts,” considers Paulina Anciola, deputy director of economic studies at Banamex.
The specialist highlighted that since last year, in September, it was known about the effect that the increase in taxes on sugary drinks and cigarettes, for example, would have. However, Banxico, in its December decision, did not reflect these impacts in its inflation forecasts.
Now, in the Monetary Program the forecasts were not adjusted either, despite the fact that the inflation for the first half of January had already been announced; Nor was any reference made to the impact on inflation due to the World Cup.
Banamex estimates an inflationary rebound in the summer, although with a temporary effect.
For private analysts, Banxico’s failure to update its inflation forecasts may respond to the need to anchor expectations, although paying the price of reputation.
“Obviously as analysts we would like to have these forecasts from Banxico because they also help us guide our expectations,” adds Anciola. “Thinking about the great capacity of the staff (that advises Banxico), not publishing them is simply a decision that cannot be understood.”
Banamex hopes that at the next monetary policy meeting, next February, Banco de México will present an update of expectations and that these will be in line with the risks.
“A big problem with this lack of communication or poor communication is that little by little inflation expectations can become unanchored,” he points out.
Despite these criticisms, Alejandro Padilla, chief economist at Grupo Financiero Banorte, said that the central bank maintains its reputation internationally.
“We trust and believe in Banco de México as a fairly solid institutional framework in our country,” he said.
