Decrease in 6 of 12 quarters of AMLO’s government
A relevant fact, according to the Banco Base, is that “quarterly falls in GDP have been observed in 6 of the 12 quarters of the six-year term” of López Obrador.
Mexico contracted in the last two quarters of 2021, 0.4% in the third and 0.1% in the fourth. With which it can be said that the economy entered a technical recession.
Although this will be determined, in due course, by the Committee for the Dating of Cycles of the Mexican Economy, made up of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography and the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives.
For now, one of the members of said committee, the deputy governor of the Bank of Mexico, Jonathan Heath, specified that speaking of a technical recession at this point is still hasty:
“A recession has to meet three requirements: depth, duration and diffusion. For now, we only meet duration,” Heath said on Twitter, referring to the fact that for now the only thing that is being met is two consecutive quarters with falls in the GDP.
Mexico, among the countries furthest from GDP recovery
The Base Bank also indicated that Mexico is the sixth economy, among the 50 largest in the world, that is farthest from reaching pre-pandemic levels.
In 2020, the Mexican economy fell 8.38% in real terms and grew at an annual rate of 5% in 2021. However, Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product is still 3.61% smaller than in 2019, before the arrival of COVID.
