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not a fact geopolitical as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with multiple actors involved and interests that we cannot glimpse, the predictions are very complicated, but I will venture to make one. First, it must be understood that the conflict has lasted much longer than expected, largely because of the enormous support that the United States (EU) has given Ukraine, but also because of that of European countries, in kind and/or or in rhetoric. European aid is crucial, since it sets the tone for the discourse to be Ukraine, Europe and the US fight for democracy and the unity of the continent against the autocrat who rules Russia and who wants to annex as much territory as possible
. In the absence of such support, it would appear that the US is intervening in the affairs of other countries, taking Ukraine to war in order to harm one of the favorite enemies of US politicians, Russia.
Why is the US interested in optics? Because countries, especially in Africa and Southeast Asia, now have an option to the order offered by Washington. China offers infrastructure, credit (with many flats and sometimes abusive conditions) and trade without intervening in internal affairs or demanding structural reforms.
The US understands that it cannot continue to support Ukraine without Europe. This is the breaking point that can lead to the resolution of the conflict. Since the beginning of the conflict, Russia has closed the tap on the Nord Stream (NS) I gas pipeline. The NS II remained in stand by pending German consent to start operations. The consequences of the lockdown have been catastrophic for EU citizens. Inflation overflowed, electricity and heating prices quadrupled, German industry closed and seeks relocation alternatives. During the first six months of the conflict, the Europeans suffered an energy crisis without precedent in the continent, but they remained determined
to defeat Putin, as long as the government supported them financially. This support cost more than a trillion euros and is unsustainable for the EU.
Russia offered on multiple occasions the reopening of the gas pipelines as a solution to the suffering of society, saying that They were ready to operate, but the European governments (especially the German one, which is where said gas arrives) did not want to do it because they supported the US in its crusade against Russia.
. The pipelines were Russia’s strongest bargaining card, what it could offer the EU to stop supporting Ukraine. That option disappeared on September 26, 2022, when the gas pipelines exploded. The nature of the conflict changed drastically that day. Both Russia and Ukraine needed to defeat the other side before sitting down to negotiate. Russia no longer had anything to offer the EU and the EU was dependent on liquefied natural gas from the US.
Senior Western officials and the media immediately called Russia to blame, although there was no hard evidence. That version was maintained until February 8, 2023, when Seymour Hersh, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, published an article in which he attributed the destruction of the gas pipelines to the United States with the support of Norway. According to Hersh, the information he had came from the highest levels of intelligence in the US. Washington immediately distorted the text, but on March 6, the New York Times published an article in which he alludes to new US intelligence reports
in which he says that the Russian government had no interference and that the explosion is attributed to a pro-Ukrainian group. A day later the Washington Post posted something similar. The interesting thing is that, although they exempt Russia and the United States, both newspapers say that it is not known for certain whether Ukrainian President Zelensky or his government were involved
.
How will the conflict be resolved? The US and EU media apparatus will begin to pressure Zelensky to make him sit down to negotiate with Russia, under the threat of making him responsible for the attacks on the gas pipelines. How could the EU support Ukraine when performed
such action? It could not, and without European support, there is no US support and Ukraine will lose much more than if it negotiates. But why does the US want the conflict to end soon? Two reasons. First: Biden is beginning to feel the political and economic cost of giving $100 billion to Ukraine while at home she can’t make good on her promise to forgive student loans. Second: the US wants to redirect its attention towards the Pacific, towards China. If China decides to invade Taiwan, the US will not be able to fight two wars on two oceans, and without a doubt, Taiwan, or rather Taiwan’s semiconductor industry (the most advanced in the world), is of far greater strategic importance to the US than Ukraine.
Twitter: @aloyub
