Political scientist Evan Ellis, professor and researcher at the United States Department of Defense War College and an expert on China-Latin America relations, was expelled from Nicaragua on June 15, 2016, after staying less than 24 hours in the country. His objective as an academic was to conduct interviews and gather information on the interoceanic canal project promoted by the Government with the Chinese company HKND.
Upon learning of Nicaragua’s severance of relations with Taiwan, Evans published an article in the middle Global Americans titled: “Nicaragua’s turn to China: What does it mean for the region?”, and answered, hot, a short questionnaire of CONFIDENTIAL.
How do you assess Nicaragua’s break with Taiwan and alignment with China? What are the implications?
It’s something we’ve been waiting for a long time. In the short term, it will probably give new life and help the Ortegas to continue in power, through additional resources and the opportunity to distribute money diverted from new loans and contracts with Chinese companies (as happened in Venezuela, under Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro; in Ecuador, under Rafael Correa, and in Bolivia, under Evo Morales). It is yet another reminder of the corrosive, albeit indirect, role that the People’s Republic of China plays in undermining democracy in Latin America and facilitating a region that is more authoritarian, and less oriented to cooperate with the United States through its own strategic interests. China lends resources regardless of whether its partners violate their own constitutions and laws or abuse human rights, while the arrangements are structured so that the Chinese are paid.
To what do you attribute the alignment with China being decided at this time?
I think the Ortegas reached an agreement with the Chinese to obtain more money than they had extorted from the Taiwanese in recent years. Also the sanctions of the United States and the Europeans and the possibility of being suspended from DR-CAFTA made it clear to the Ortegas that they needed to create alternative resources to stay in power. The “Democracy Summit” held by the Joe Biden Administration, to which Nicaragua was not invited, was a symbolic opportunity for them to show their independence, deflect the message of the United States from the Summit and spit the eye of the ” uncle Sam”.
What is the underlying reason in Ortega’s calculation? WhatGeopolitical alignment or economic expectations?
I think it is the imperative of the Ortegas to stay in power, especially in anticipation of more sanctions from the US and Europe, and the possibility of being excluded from CAFTA, and also losing investments from the West that they have attracted as part of their integration with the North American market. Like the position of China and Russia with Venezuela, having the People’s Republic of China as a partner also helps to obstruct actions by organizations such as the UN against Nicaragua due to their lack of democracy.
Taiwan gave Nicaragua $ 30 million annually with no commitments. What can Ortega achieve in the short term? Donations? Loans? Investments?
Taiwan has been a good friend to Nicaragua, despite the uncomfortable situation that the lack of democracy and respect for human rights in Nicaragua did not correspond to Taiwan. It seems to me that the Taiwanese diplomatic corps, Ambassadors Jaime Wu, and Alexander Yui, did an impressive job with limited resources, against enormous difficulties. However, Taiwan cannot compete with the size of the Chinese economy, or its resources. Soon, we will hear of the signing of many non-transparent cooperation agreements to facilitate sales of Nicaraguan coffee and fruit to the Chinese market, benefiting certain businessmen well connected to the Ortegas. I look forward to a new Confucius Institute in Managua, Hanban scholarships, and a training program on China for the Nicaraguan diplomatic corps. Agreements on projects for the construction, generation and transmission of electricity, agricultural products, telecommunications, smart cities, etc., paid for by loans from the Chinese Development Bank, and guaranteed by the Sandinista government with the money of Nicaraguans. It is still early to see if the government is going to give new life to the Nicaraguan canal project, but the fact of seeing Laureano Ortega meeting in Tianjin with the Chinese indicates to me that it will be on the minds of both sides.
How will China treat this new Ortega regime, which in the 1980s remained distant and did not provide cooperation?
China is very transactional. Recognize a strategic opportunity. Like Judas, the Ortegas are going to receive their money for their betrayal of Taiwan. For a long time, he differentiated himself from the other countries that have taken a “diplomatic turn” in recent years, Costa Rica, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Panama.
If they relaunch the canal project, the drama of China’s role in the country, and the debt, will be much greater.
Also in this context, Nicaragua would be a candidate, if one day China thinks of establishing a military presence in the hemisphere. But in the medium term, if there is no channel or military base, just like Costa Rica with Óscar Arias, with Laura Chinchilla, after spending its useful time, Nicaragua will be left with debts with the Chinese, the dependence of its economy on Chinese companies , and an authoritarian state sponsored by the Chinese for their benefit, against democracy and the interests of Nicaraguans in development and prosperity.
