The president of Ipsos, Alfredo Torresdevelops and analyzes the latest electoral surveys.
It is the first survey …
This is the first survey with the 43 registered games that can participate in the next elections. We have left out some groups that failed to arrive. When we ask the questions of intention to vote, we ask them for parties and by people, as always, to identify the answers in each case. And by the game the best known are forward: Popular Force, Popular Action …
The brands …
Indeed, it has a lot to do with that they are historical brands. But the most relevant thing is that two thirds of the interviewees do not answer for any of the matches that are in Congress. So, that is already telling us that there is a demand for change. What happens is that new parties still know them. Faced with that question, many people who are misinformed, because they are not following politics, he says that he will vote blank or do not know.
Then come the questions by people.
In questions by people and potential candidates, some cases are more or less obvious, but in other cases we have had to speculate a little. And there what appears is that the same names that came out in the January survey in the first places come out in April. Keiko Fujimori forward. Then, secondly, tied again, Rafael López Aliaga and Carlos Álvarez. And then the others. The difference is that both Álvarez and López Aliaga They upload two points and now they are a little more distanced from those who come later. Then, there are some known names that appear with 3%, also because of the advantage that they have been presidential candidates before. And in the 2% group there are some new names that can grow.
The vote of Keiko Fujimori It is maintained.
Yes, she has a transverse vote throughout the country, urban and rural. And at all socioeconomic levels. López Aliagaon the other hand, it is more concentrated in Lima than inside, and more at AB levels. Álvarez appears a little better at level C, both in Lima and inside.
He has hit the hard hand speech.
I believe that insecurity is the number one problem of citizens. It even aligns with another question we have asked in the survey: What feelings does the person go to vote? What appears in the first place is fear, for the advancement of crime and violence. And secondly, anger, for injustice and corruption. It is an important answer because fear leads us to vote for a hard -hand leader, which is what so much López Aliaga as Álvarez They try to transmit. Fujimori has also done so since the father’s time. But in the case of rabies, that is a feeling that usually leads us to the anti -system vote, to the protest vote. Somehow he expressed himself in Pedro Castillo in the last elections. And now we see it still in the blank vote. We believe that this sector has not yet found its candidate. The rabies candidate has not yet appeared.
Look: Ipsos survey: Who leads electoral preferences for 2026?
Did Antauro Humala represent him?
At some point, in previous surveys, antaur appeared greatly; But Antaurus was correctly excluded by the Judiciary. And others who could have occupied that space, such as Aníbal Torres or ‘Puka’ Bellido, have failed to register their matches. Other names that we have measured are Vladimir Cerrón, which could be a candidate despite being in hiding, or Guillermo Bermejo, who could be a candidate to the extent that he has no conviction. They are in the 2%group. Some of them could grow.
There is also a drill with three second possible turns among the first three candidates.
What we found is that, as has already happened on previous occasions, Keiko Fujimoriwhich goes forward in the first round, loses the second round in either of the two cases. Which I suppose will lead her to reflect whether it should persist in the presidential candidacy or if she should think rather an alliance or some other person of her group for that candidacy, and take her head of the Senate.
The other second round is Álvarez – López Aliaga.
The other second round shows us Carlos Álvarez winning to Rafael López Aliaga for a greater vote in provinces; But of course it is premature and there is a lot of blank vote, much undecided to say that there is a conclusive result.
Are the undisputed proportionally?
Well, it is reduced depending on how campaigns go. The blank vote is reduced because people opt for lesser evil. What for each one is the lesser evil. That always happens: in the second round the blank vote is reduced. What must also be taken into account is that this survey occurs in a context where 80% of people say they are not informed of politics. There is a climate of detachment and disappointment towards politics. And then the campaign will take time. That is what can also be foreseen.
There are also surveys for two Senate applicants: Antaur and Castle.
Humala Antaur He cannot participate as a presidential candidate because his party was withdrawn from the registry, but could be invited to be a Senate candidate for another party. So far it is not prevented from doing so, although some interpret that the same reason why his party was excluded from the register should exclude him from a possible Senate candidacy. It is a topic in debate. And in the case of Castlewhat he has is a judicial process. If he is convicted in the coming months, as all the tests indicate, because we all remember the live and live coup d’etat, he would be excluded. But, if it is not excluded in time, he could also be invited to be a candidate for the Senate.
Even Castle has a little more than Antaur.
Here the interesting thing is that the two, but above all Castlethey have an important sector of the population that says they would vote for them. In the case of Castillo, those who say they could vote for him reach a more than one third. That indicates that there is a feeling in a sector of citizenship, especially Andean or rural, of protest and rage, which could lead to vote for someone like Castle In the next elections, both for the presidential, although they still do not identify the candidate, and directly for the Senate, if he, AntaurAníbal Torres or some character of that profile is presented to the Senate. Now, it happened before, right?
It happened with Gregorio Santos, candidate from prison.
Yes, he candidate from prison and the fence passes little. He took more than 4%. In fact, some say that that is why Verónika Mendoza did not go to the second round, because he took part in the left vote, and thus PPK could go to the second round. Indeed, Castillo can candidate while in prison, but once a conviction occurs he can no longer participate or be elected. The conviction would have to come before and not after, because if it would not be very serious. They would have given the votes to a party and they would have to withdraw the candidate that generated them.
Solid benches, governance are expected. Not an anti -system congress.
That is the risk that exists. If some parties lead to anti -system politicians who have a certain degree of popular support, that could happen. With the aggravating fact that the tremendous dispersion of matches leads to a paradox: that many might not pass the fence. Imagine that many parties take 1% or 2% and those who pass the fence are few. According to Ipsos simulations for a commission that made us transparency, only three or four games would pass the fence.
Many less than we have in Congress.
Of course. This has been a record case of ten games. The average used to be six or seven. Now we foresee less, unless there are alliances. If four parties are grouped, all they have to do to maintain their registration is that one of their candidates manages to enter the Senate or the Chamber of Deputies. And the historical experience of alliances is that most of them, yes not all, pass the fence. Governance should be the underlying issue. The most serious parties should start working in minimum agreements on consensus issues, such as security. From here to August 2, which is the deadline, I would say that we are in the season of alliances.
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
“Through alliances, parties should make more attractive proposals. With 43 candidates people have no time or patience to read all the options. The card will be huge high, but also wide,” says Alfredo Torres.
Indicates that the next survey will be in two or three months. “The surveys are telling us that alliances are required, because there are many games that have very little support. The egos issue has to be resolved to see who heads. It is not so easy because the surveys do not show us very defined leaders. They are all quite even,” he says.
External vote. “You can still increase the register. The natural thing is to go to the electronic vote. Congress is studying it. According to a survey, citizens see with very good eyes facilitate vote to family members abroad. The reasonable goal would be a million votes.”
Recommended video
