Alejandro Murat Hinojosa will deliver the administration of the state of oaxaca whoever wins the election next June 5, with red numbers in practically all economic indicatorsexcept in economic growthwhere in the third quarter of 2021, it registered 6.9%, when its goal was to grow at 4.5% per year.
Economic growth
oaxaca its goal is to grow 4.5% annually and in the third quarter of 2021 it reached 6.9% and a quarter before, 21.1%; however, of the previous 17 quarters, 10 registered red numbers. Between 2017 and 2021, only the four quarters of 2018 had positive records, with 2.6% in the first, 5.6% in the second, 4.8% in the third and 3.4 in the fourth. The lowest record occurred in the second quarter of 2020, in the most acute stage of the Covid-19 pandemicwith -17.2 percent.
Employment
Oaxaca has the goal of registering 8,600 accumulated jobs and for the first quarter of 2022 it reported 882, which places it very far from reaching the goal. That has been the constant throughout the six-year term that is about to end. Except in the fourth quarter of 2017, when it registered 12,128, in all the others it has not exceeded 3,800. From 2019 to 2021, negative numbers were reported in 10 quarters, with the second and third quarters of 2020 being the most severe with -9,363 and -9,405.
Informality
Oaxaca registered an informality rate of 74.9%, a figure similar to that registered during the fourth quarter of 2016, the last of the previous administration, which was 75 percent. During the current six-year term, the lowest records have been that of the fourth quarter of 2017, with 72.4% and the third of 2020 with 69.1 percent. The others have been between 72.2% and 75.4%, the highest, registered in the second quarter of 2019. On a national scale, informality is 51.5 percent.
Working Poverty
During the last three quarters of 2021, the percentage of the Oaxacan population in working poverty grew markedly, going from 55.8% in the first quarter to 64% in the fourth quarter. At the beginning of the current state administration, this indicator that registers the percentage of the population that cannot acquire a basic food basket with their labor income, was at 62.6% (in the first quarter of 2017). It rose to 64.5% in the first quarter of 2017 and then fell to 55.6% in the first quarter of 2021, but from there it rose again.
Public debt
The Governor’s Administration alexander murat received a public debt equivalent to 0.5% of the State Gross Domestic Productwhich rose to 5% in 2020. Practically year after year of the current administration it was rising, except in 2019, when it fell to 1.5%, below the 3.1 registered in 2018. On a national scale it is 0.9 percent .
competitiveness
Oaxaca occupies the penultimate place of the State Competitiveness Index 2021 of the IMCO, although it rose one position compared to the previous year. In 2016 he was in second last place. This index measures the capacity of states to generate, attract and retain talent and investment.
Security
In 2021, Oaxaca registered 20 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, which placed the state in 13th place among the states with the most crimes of this type. The national average is 26.8.
Oaxaca has nine public ministries for every 100,000 inhabitants when the national average is 10.4 and 99.4% of intentional homicides go unpunished, according to the State Performance Index of Attorney General’s Offices and Prosecutor’s Offices 2021 of Zero Impunity.
According to criminal traffic light, that entity is in the green in homicides and home robbery; yellow in kidnapping, drug dealing, vehicle theft and injuries and red in extortion, business robbery, rape, family violence and femicide.
political landscape
The PRI regained the governorship of the state in 2016, after six years earlier it had been seized Citizen movement, which has been the only party other than the tricolor to govern the entity. That year, the current president obtained 32% of the votes, followed by Jose Antonio Estefan of the PRD with 25% and Solomon Jara from Brunette with 23% (who participate again in the current electoral process).
The State Congress is made up of 42 legislators, of whom Morena has 23, PRI eight, PRD three, PAN two, PT two, PVEM two, Partido Unidad Popular one, Nueva Alianza one.
The state is made up of 570 municipalities, of which 153 elect their authorities through the party system. Of these, Morena governs 50, PRI 23, PRD 17, PAN 13, PVEM 11, PT eight, NA six, independents six, PES five, Fuerza por México five, Partido Unidad Popular four, MC three and Redes Sociales Progresistas two.
In the midterm elections of 2021, of the 10 federal electoral districts of the entity, seven were won by the alliance formed by PVEM, PT and Morena and three by Morena alone. In that election Morena obtained 44.8% of the votes; PRI 21% and PAN 5%.
The entity has 4 million 132,148 inhabitants.
Sources: IMCO, Mexico, how are we doing?, INE, TResearch International, Zero Impunity, Criminal Stoplight and SESNSP.
