Colombian agriculture continues to show positive results in terms of economic growth. For this third quarter, The sector registered an increase of 10.7%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the annual variationthat is, almost 50% of the weight of the total Colombian GDP, which stood at 2%.
(See: The foods that dropped the most in price in the country during October)
In this way, the actors in the sector reiterated that the good dynamics of agriculture are due to the positive behavior of the international price of agricultural inputs, which have maintained a downward trend, as well as the growth in production and price of Colombian coffee.
According to Andrés Valencia, former Minister of Agriculture, during the third quarter alone, grain production reached 3.3 million bags, representing an increase of 23%, compared to the same time last year.
(Read more: Incauca modernizes its harvest and eliminates sugarcane burning)
For this reason, the behavior of the price paid abroad has also changed positively, increasing in the last three months by close to 39%. “Coffee has been in the best of all worlds: costs fall, price rises and production grows. Therefore, according to Dane, the production of parchment coffee grew 37.9%”Valencia assured.
Now, according to Jorge Bedoya, president of the Society of Farmers of Colombia (SAC), another of the factors that have proven to be drivers of this good behavior is the dynamics of the price of agricultural inputs, whichproduction costs have simultaneously improved.
Based on what Bedoya mentioned, agricultural subsectors such as cocoa, coffee and permanent crops have been renewing crops, which also go hand in hand with good fertilization, situations that together contribute to productivity and increased production.
(See also: Coffee price per pound reached $2.79, a figure not seen 13 years ago)
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He highlighted that the high demand for bananas and avocados in the international market also benefits the agricultural economy. “What has happened has been very dissident, in the case of avocado exports, if we compare the data from January-October, more than 119,000 tons have already been sold abroad. This goes hand in hand with greater productivity, especially in the area of tree renewal and not necessarily with prices.”; he explained.
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Likewise, Valencia detailed, for example, that the August figures show that Banana exports have grown by 43% in volume, exceeding 1.6 million tonss, while in value they grew 50%.
“Flowers also had a notable performance, increasing 8%. Other crops such as soybeans, especially in the Altillanura, have grown significantly to such an extent that a process of import substitution is being generated.”, he mentioned.
For Camilo Herrera, founder of Raddar, this is a region of cyclical movements, so constant and efficient productions are a function of crops, climate and global markets. “What can be seen in the GDP is that mostly coffee is saving the Colombian economy”, he opined.
(See more: Fenalce and Minagricultura promote agenda to strengthen competitiveness of the sector)
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Sustainability
Now, one of the factors that generates concern is the maintenance of agricultural growth. Although it has been the sector that contributes the most to the GDP for months, Its future is cloudy because it is one of the most volatile lines of the Colombian economy.
(Read also: Colombian coffee, to prepare for a recovery in Vietnam and Brazil)
Regarding this, Jorge Bedoya highlighted that the growth of agriculture will depend on the behavior of international markets, demand, but in addition to the climate dynamics in the country, Therefore, the current rains could affect production and fluctuate the growth indicator.
“Here anything can happen. That’s why on the field one is never claiming victory. Because it is very sensitive to what happens with the cost of inputs, the climate, and another thing that is like the silent enemy, is what happens with household consumption. The fate of food products depends on the health of consumers”, he noted.
In turn, Andrés Valencia highlighted that the future prospects will also depend on what happens with coffee and its price, but also the international demand for bananas, flowers, exotic fruits and transitory crops such as soybeans and corn.
(See: Why Petro asked Maduro to reconsider the privatization of Monómeros)
“The data for the last quarter of 2024 will include the figures for the main coffee harvest and the October 2024 data shows, at the beginning of the main harvest, a growth in coffee production of 15%. That is to say, it started very well. The results in livestock farming are very positive and in the production of raw milk, although the next link in the chain remains depressed due to the drop in consumption.“, said.
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Public policy
The achievement of the line that the Government has highlighted during the last two quarters, according to experts, It is due to the behavior of external factors, added to the work of farmers, but not to the public policies proposed in this administration.
(Read: Exports: fuels fall, while the agricultural sector grows)
For Andrés Valencia, so far there is no impact of the Government’s policies on agricultural growth. Well, in the case of coffee, production was largely due to climatic factors during the months prior to the harvest and the increase in international prices and the exchange rate.
“In addition to the reduction in fertilizer costs where the interference of public policy has been minimal. There have been external factors such as the greater demand for flowers, bananas and exotic fruits, where government policies have not played a role either.”, he indicated.
(See more: The growth of Colombian coffee production continues)
Along the same lines, Camilo Herrera highlighted that it is still not clear how the Government can be contributing to the agricultural GDP, since “If they have done something new in coffee, palm, avocado or other new crops, it will not be seen in the short term”, he concluded.
