During 2024, the coffee It was one of the crops in the agricultural sector that showed the best results. According to the latest figures from the National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC)only production has increased by 20% and the stock market price exceeded US$3 per pound. Climatic events contributed to the good behavior.
At the same time, of the country’s economic sectors, agriculture showed the greatest growth throughout the year. According to the figures of the Dannythis line grew by 10.2% in the third quarter, remaining in double digits for almost half of the year. Coffee and bananas explained the upward trend in agriculture.
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Germán Bahamón, general manager of the coffee growers
Locomotives, in mid gear
The construction, commerce and industryimportant to carry out the recovery, spent 2024 waiting for a reactivation plan that never materialized, with negative data and a ‘glimpse’ of improvement at the end of the year.
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The one with the most modest results has been that of construction. In the period January – September 2024, 13,688,988 m² were licensed for constructionwhile in the same period of 2023 there were 17,006,525 m², which represented a decrease of 19.5%.
For its part, In the first nine months of the year ending, retail sales decreased 0.6%. And in the case of the industry, the data are more worrying: the real production of the industry obtained a variation of -2.9%, real sales of -2.9% and employed personnel of -1.0%.
Train
Board of the Bank of the Republic: for caution
At the beginning of 2024, inflation in Colombia exceeded 10% and Bank of the Republic was beginning its process of monetary normalization, reducing its rate of intervention in the market.
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Initially, The reductions occurred around 25 basis points (bp)but as the variation of the inflation index began to moderate consistently, the Colombian central bank board began to make decreases of 50 points.
In the absence of the last meeting of the year, in which it is contemplated that the rate may be moved, the cost of the Issuer’s instrument is at 9.75% and although inflation could close at 5%, there are factors that could cause the board members opt for a formula of another 50 basis points to leave it at 9.25%. Few see a 75 bp drop.
Bank of the Republic
Year of reforms to the SGP and pensions
Of the social bets that it has been giving Gustavo Petro Since he became President of the Republic, 2024 was a period in which he managed to get two.
The first was the pension reform, which against all odds was approved before time ran out in the first semester and after its presidential sanction, it was ready to come into effect in the month of July.
Congress of the Republic
Since that time, two decrees have been issued since Ministry of Labor and the new actor of the system was defined: the Administrators of the Complementary Component of Individual Savings (ACCAI)which will open the market.
The reform was also approved General Participation Systemwith which Government transfers to the regions will rise to 39.5% in the next 12 years.
In 2025, a law of powers must be processed that will pass from the central government to the regions and avoid a fiscal crisis later.
PORTFOLIO
