Grain production in Brazil could reach 269.3 million tons in the 2021/22 harvest. The number is 5.4% higher than that recorded in the previous harvest, corresponding to an increase of 13.8 million tons, if the expectations announced today (7) by the National Supply Company (Conab) are confirmed.
The forecast, however, is lower than the one disclosed in the company’s first survey, which projected a harvest of 288.6 million tons. As a result, the volume released today represents a reduction of 6.7% (or 19.3 million tons), compared to the previous projection.
According to Conab, this drop in expectations is due to “adverse weather conditions” observed in the states of the South Region and in the center-south of Mato Grosso do Sul, with greater losses in soybeans and corn.
“The result until the end of this harvest will depend a lot on the climatic behavior, a preponderant factor for the development of cultures”, explains the president of Conab, Guilherme Ribeiro.
“Between March and April, the sowing of the second Brazilian crop is nearing completion, in which the corn crop stands out. The rains were more regular throughout the producing region, including the south of the country, which allowed for planting in good humidity conditions. The producer did his part. Now let’s wait for the weather,” he added.
The survey estimates that the total planted area in the country is 72.9 million hectares, which represents a growth of 4.4% compared to the 2020/21 harvest. “The biggest increases in area are observed in soybeans, with 4.1% or 1.6 million hectares, and in corn, with 6.5% or 1.3 million hectares”, details Conab.
Soy
Soybean production is forecast at 122.4 million tons, which represents a reduction of 11.4% in relation to the previous harvest. “The good rainfall that occurred in practically the entire country helped in the recovery of a small portion of crops sown late in the South Region and in Mato Grosso do Sul, but did not reverse the decline in productivity, already announced in previous surveys”, informs the director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies at Conab, Sergio De Zen.
The states of Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul are the most affected by the recent water deficit. Conab adds that most other states achieved “productivities higher than those obtained in the last harvest, with emphasis on Piauí, with a positive yield of 12.7%”.
According to Conab, the fall in the country’s production was mitigated mainly by the 4.1% increase in the sown area, reaching 40.8 million hectares in this harvest.
Corn
The estimated production of corn is 115.6 million tons, 32.7% higher than that recorded in the previous cycle. According to the company, the harvest of the 1st crop of the cereal “is advanced, in the 2nd the development phase predominates and the 3rd crop starts planting from the second week of April”.
Conab adds that, despite the increase in total volume, it is important to record the sharp drop of 20.4% in productivity in the South region during the first harvest, a fact that, according to the entity, “caused a reduction of up to 15.6% production in that region”.
“This is explained by a severe water deficit caused by the absence of rains in the south of the country at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022”, says the superintendent of Agricultural Information, Candice Santos.
“On the other hand, it should be noted that the company projects a 36.3% increase in corn productivity during the second harvest, given that it will allow a production of 88.5 million tons of the cereal in the second cycle”, he adds.
Cotton, rice and beans
In the case of some other crops, such as cotton, climatic conditions have favored development, combined with area gain, “which should result in a production of 2.83 million tons of the lint, 19.9% higher to the past harvest”.
For beans, the forecast is for a harvest of 3.1 million tons, a result 7.6% above the previous harvest. “The first crop of the legume has already been harvested, the second is in progress and the third crop is being planted in mid-April”, details Conab.
The estimated production of rice is estimated at 10.5 million tons (10.5% less than the volume of the past harvest). Of this total, 9.7 million tons originate from irrigated cultivation and 0.8 million tons from rainfed plantations.
In winter crops (oats, canola, rye, barley, wheat and triticale), sowing is still incipient and should reach a production of 7.9 million tons for wheat.
Marketplace
The April survey maintained the estimate for 2022 of cotton exports at 2.05 million tonnes, rice at 1.3 million tonnes and beans at 200,000 tonnes.
“For wheat, considering that the forecast volume exported between August 2021 and March 2022 already exceeds 2.8 million tons, an increase is expected in the period corresponding to the commercial year that runs until July. Therefore, the estimate is that 3 million tons will be exported. Confirmed this number, it will be the record of the historical series for wheat”, informed, in a note, Conab.
In the case of soybeans, there was a reduction in the estimated volume of exports, from 80.16 million tons to 77 million tons. The company explains that this reduction was motivated by a “greater focus on the production and export of oil, to the detriment of grain”.
In the case of corn, foreign sales should increase by 2 million tons and reach the mark of 37 million tons. This increase is probably related to the heated international demand. As a result, the estimate is for a “77.8% increase in grain exports in the 2022 harvest, between February 2022 and January 2023”, details the superintendent of Market Studies and Supply Management at Conab, Allan Silveira.
Regarding the expected ending stocks for the main commodities Brazilian companies, the superintendent confirms that, in the case of corn, the changes “were not significant”, with the carryover stock for the 2021/22 crop forecast at 10.84 million tons, an increase of 5.16% compared to the last one. survey and 40.61% compared to the 2020/21 harvest, as a result of the prospect of recovery in the second harvest.
For soybeans in grain, the expectation is that the stock at the end of this year will be 2.5 million tons – practically stable in relation to the last survey.
Conab informs that, in relation to the average monthly prices of products in the main markets, it was observed, in the comparison between February and January, a reduction of 0.3% in the price of corn in Paraná.
On the other hand, there was an increase of 2.4% in black beans in Paraná; of 0.3% in cotton prices in Mato Grosso; 8.8% for rice in Rio Grande do Sul; 7.6% in colored beans in São Paulo; 4.0% in the price of corn in Mato Grosso; of 10.4% in wheat prices in Paraná; and 3.3% and 3.2% in soybean prices in the states of Mato Grosso and Paraná, respectively.
