A year later, both Russia and Ukraine want to end the war, not only because peace is the most legitimate wish, but because war is a humanitarian tragedy, unpopular, bad business, and consumes political capital. The problem is that they don’t know how to do it.
Russia cannot back down because it went too far and for Ukraine surrender is not an option, as it has never been for any invaded country. Russia proudly recalls that, with the Nazis 80 kilometers away, Stalin refused to leave Moscow.
For a solution to be just and acceptable, it must entail material security guarantees for Russia and preserve Ukraine’s national independence and territorial integrity. Due to the distance of these positions, the route sheet must come from outside. Probably by a formula analogous to that applied in the Korean War.
In Korea, faced with a situation of virtual tables, with no military solution in sight, and in which neither of the contenders could be sacrificed for the benefit of the other, the Soviet Union, which managed to preserve a certain status of neutrality, analogous to what what Tϋrkiye does today, which, although it is part of NATO, acts as an interlocutor between the parties. In 1953 the dialogue led to an armistice, a formula, criticized and incomplete but effective.
Although for peace in Europe to break through, the understanding of the United States is needed, the main thing will be the willingness and determination of Russia and Ukraine, especially President Putin, as well as the capacity and political solvency of the mediators and sponsors to formulate concrete and viable proposals and develop a platform acceptable to the parties.
Among other promoters and mediators are the presidents of Turkey Recep Tallinn Erdogan, Andres Manuel López Obrador of Mexico, Alberto Fernández of Argentina and Luis Inacio Lula of Brazil who discussed the issue with Emmanuel Macron of France, Olaf Scholz of Germany and Joe Biden of the United States and announced that he will soon do so with the president of China, Xi Jinping. With these promoters, peace in Ukraine could assume better prospects.
The War started for six reasons:
(1) Armed conflict between the separatist forces of the Donbass region and the government of Ukraine.
(2) Violation and ignorance of the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015.
(3) Occupation and annexation of Crimea.
(4) Russia’s security concerns over Ukraine’s probable NATO membership
(5) Russian invasion of Ukraine
(6) Incorporation into Russia of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Necessarily, the solution to the conflict must begin with a “ceasefire” and the freezing of operations in the occupied positions, with details for the evacuation of the wounded, the protection of civilians and the exchange of prisoners.
In this regard, an “interposition zone” could be created, occupied by soldiers from an international peacekeeping force, unarmed or carriers of light weapons for their safety, medical and quartermaster personnel to administer international aid in that area.
The package of agreements could include that both Crimea and the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk are no longer Ukrainian or Russian, but independent states protected by the United Nations Charter. Such states would adopt neutrality, renouncing to form part of international organizations and/or treaties, mainly the European Union and NATO, and to possess military forces equipped with heavy weapons, military aviation, and navy.
For its part, Ukraine would renounce its entry into the European Union and NATO and the manufacture, acquisition or emplacement in its territory of offensive weapons, especially nuclear, chemical or biological. Russia would undertake not to use such weapons against Ukraine. All countries bordering Ukraine must renew the commitment to respect the existing borders.
Perhaps these formulas are not exactly the solution, but somehow it will have to start and, once the military operations cease and peace is restored and a climate of trust restored, there will be excellent new opportunities for collaboration. Someone must take the initiative and advance concrete proposals. See you there.
*This text was originally published in the Mexican newspaper For this! It is reproduced with the permission of its author.
