Judging by what has happened since the weekend, the bearish streak of the dollar and the euro in the informal market of Cuba.
After about two weeks of rapid decline, in which they lost around 90 pesos (CUP) in value, both currencies changed that trend in recent days and confirmed their rebound this Monday, despite the campaigns against the rate published by the independent media. The Touch.
The dollar, which fell to 410 CUP, this morning was already trading at 430 after experiencing an increase of 10 pesos in the last 24 hours, according to the independent publication itself, which prepares its rate based on purchase and sale offers published on digital platforms.
For its part, the euro rose five pesos since this Sunday to place its value at dawn today at 460 CUP, 30 above the US currency, from which it had distanced itself by double that figure weeks ago.
As for the MLC, its price remained at 205 CUP after minimal fluctuations over the weekend, mirroring what its behavior has been for several months.
Update of informal currency market rates in Cuba
Date: 11/10/2025Image 1: Representative rate of the informal market (elTOQUE)
EUR: 460.00 CUP
USD: 430.00 CUP
MLC: 205.00 CUPThere are offers in the ranges:
EUR: from 430.00 to 505.00 CUP
USD: from 385.00 to 470.00 CUP
MLC:… pic.twitter.com/a1KCOHK3Ml— The Touch (@eltoquecom) November 10, 2025
Beyond campaigns
Questioned by the authorities and official media, and also by private sector businessmen who consider it manipulated with political intentions, the rate of The Touch experienced a striking drop amid calls not to carry out operations based on it and the effects of the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Melissa in the east of the island.
In this context, the publication recalled that sudden movements in the rate were not an unprecedented phenomenon in the informal dynamics of Cuba and stressed that the campaigns against its rate do not create foreign currency or reduce inflation and, therefore, “they do not change the fundamentals of the market.”
Independent analysts have a similar assessment, pointing mainly to the Government’s hitherto failed monetary and economic policies. Also ordinary Cubans, who looked at the fall of currencies with distrust and even joked on the networks that the dollar and the euro were only falling to “gain momentum” and rise with greater strength in value.
The current trend of the informal market on the island, with the two main foreign currencies rising again, occurs in the midst of a deepening of the prolonged socioeconomic crisis on the island, accentuated by the scourge of Melissa and marked by the lack of basic products, high inflation and prolonged blackouts, among other factors.
Added to this is, in addition, the Government’s commitment to dollarization, which has multiplied throughout the country the establishments and services in which payment is only accepted in cards backed in hard currencies, while the once stocked stores in MLC continue to decline.
All of the above also happens while waiting for the entry into force of the new floating rate exchange market. As Prime Minister Manuel Marrero announced in July before the National Assembly, it was to begin sometime in the second half of 2025, although with less than two months left before the end of the year there is still no clarity as to when it could be implemented.
