The trade balance review for 2022, released today (22) by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), points to a 13.8% growth in exports, totaling US$ 319.471 billion, against US$ 280.633 billion. effective in 2021. For imports, the increase predicted by the AEB is 21%, with a result of US$ 265.345 billion, compared to US$ 219.409 billion made last year. For the surplus, however, the forecast is to reach US$ 54.126 billion, a reduction of 11.9% compared to the US$ 61.224 billion calculated in 2021.
Both export and import forecasts, if they materialize, will constitute records, replacing the previous records of US$ 280.633 billion in exports, last year, and US$ 239.621 billion in imports, in 2013. Likewise, the current of trade, projected at US$584.816 billion for 2022, will set a new record, surpassing the previous record result of US$500.042 billion recorded in 2021.
War
The war between Russia and Ukraine is the main factor in the AEB’s projections, he told Brazil Agency the executive president of the entity, José Augusto de Castro. According to Castro, the conflict in Eastern Europe caused an increase in all products, in general, both for export and import. “The war has made commodity prices [produtos agrícolas e minerais comercializados no mercado internacional] increased even more and imported products came to have a much greater weight. It started to pay much more.”
Between the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, in March, until this month of July, some products imported by Brazil had significant price increases, including natural gas (+79%), oil (+31%), coal (+ 27%) and fertilizers (+31%). Comparing the prices in force in January 2021, before the conflict, therefore, and July 2022, the AEB found an “explosive” price rise for the selected products: natural gas 365%, oil 68%, coal 320% and fertilizers 232%.
Import
The executive president of the AEB pointed out that the Brazilian government itself has announced at the beginning of each month that the result of the trade balance this year is a mixture of “price, price and price”. In 2022, prices have risen, on average, 35% in imports and 20% in exports. “This is the reason why we are seeing a strong price increase in the imported product”. In addition to the lack of products and raw materials, which would partly explain the increase in imports, there is also a lack of containers. “With the lack of containers, logistics and freight prices started to be much higher”.
One of the main products that will be affected are chips, electronic components, whose main supplier is China. “As lockdown, China is reducing deliveries, which creates a lack of products in the international market. Prices go up because of that.”
The trend is that the prices of commodities begin to have, now, a slight accommodation. “It is not a strong fall, but a slight accommodation”, warned José Augusto de Castro. The executive president recalled that, last year, the average price of iron ore exports was US$ 125 a ton. This year, it’s around $93.
Castro analyzed that this price accommodation movement will be observed in world trade as a whole. As China’s growth is much lower than in previous years, the reduction in China’s growth means a reduction in world growth, because “China is the great inducer of this slowdown”, pointed out the executive president of AEB.
exports
Imports are concentrated in the extractive and processing industry. Exports are the commodities, which had price increases this year, except for iron ore (-25.4%), pork (-8.2%) and cellulose (-0.6%). Highlight for fuel oils (+57.4%), unroasted coffee (55.5%), petroleum (39.2%), corn (36.1%), soybeans (29.7%), beef chicken (27.1%), beef (21.6%).
According to the analysis made by the AEB, soybeans in grain will resume the leadership of Brazilian exports, totaling US$ 43.698 billion in 2022, thanks to price and volume drops in iron ore exports and, also, due to the reduction in the volume of oil.
The data projected by the AEB indicate that, thanks to the high prices of the commodities, Brazil will be able to leave the current 26th position in the world export ranking and gain up to four positions. Regarding imports, the significant price increases observed in goods from the manufacturing industry may lead Brazil to leave the current 29th position in the ranking and earn up to five positions.
AEB’s previous forecast for the year 2022, released on December 8, 2021, showed the following data: exports of US$ 262.379 billion, imports of US$ 227.855 billion and a surplus of US$ 34.524 billion.
