The preview of official inflation in the country shows that, in October, the price of food and drinks fell 0.02%, on average. The result represents the fifth consecutive month of deflation (negative inflation). From June to October, food and drinks were 0.98% cheaper.
The data was collected by Broad National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15)released this Friday (24) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The indicator pointed to a slowdown to 0.18%, as it had reached 0.48% in September.
The IBGE shows that, from September 2024 to May 2025, food and beverages showed nine consecutive months of increases, influenced by factors such as climate issues, which harmed the harvest. Since then, there have been five setbacks:
- October: -0.02%
- September: -0.35%
- August: -0.53%
- July: -0.06%
- June: -0.02%
With the sequence of falls, the 12-month accumulated food inflation reached 6.26% in October. This level is above the general inflation calculated by the IPCA-15 (4.94%) in the period.
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However, it is the lowest since September 2024, when it registered 5.22%. Since then, the variation reached 8.02% in May 2025. In September 2024, the accumulated rate was 7.21%.
The IPCA-15 calculates the average variation in the cost of 377 products and services that are part of the shopping basket of Brazilians who earn up to 40 minimum wages. Food and beverages are the most representative portion of this basket, accounting for 21.63% of the index.
Looking specifically at food at home, which excludes spending on snacks, meals and coffee on the street, inflation was -0.10% in October and 5.47% in the 12 months, the lowest level since August 2024, when it was 4.19%.
Food in October
In October’s IPCA-15, the items that contributed most to the fall of the foods were:
- Onion (-7.65%)
- Chicken egg (-3.01%)
- Rice (-1.37%)
- Long life milk (-1%)
Each of these declines represents 0.01 pp in the index.
In the product basket, four sub-items had double-digit price drops:
- Cucumber: -24.43%
- Zucchini: -20.80%
- Strawberry: -15.63%
- Brown fish: -12.68%
Despite the variation, the weight of these items in the total index does not exceed 0.01 percentage points.
In the 12-month period, the biggest drops were in potatoes (-39%), black beans (-32%), onions (-27%) and cucumbers (-27%).
At the other end, there are the increases in ground coffee (53%), zucchini (43%) and peppers (36%).
See the behavior of other items in the month:
- Tubers, roots and vegetables: -2.17%
- Vegetables and vegetables: -1.87%
- Cereals, legumes and oilseeds: -1.24%
- Fish: -0.98%
- Milk and dairy products: -0.66%
- Poultry and eggs: -0.51%
- Industrialized meat and fish: -0.24%
- Meat: -0.05%
- Drinks and infusions: 0.01%
- Canned goods: 0.22%
- Baked goods: 0.23%
- Fruits: 2.07%
- Oils and fats: 2.18%
Harvest
For the chief economist of the Associação Paulista de Supermercados, Felipe Queiroz, the October result is very positive and points to a convergence towards the center of the inflation target, stipulated by the government at 3% per year, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less, that is, up to 4.5%.
Queiroz highlights the behavior of food prices. “Considering the importance that food has on the family budget, especially for lower-income families, the October result is quite encouraging due to the drop in essential products such as rice, milk, eggs and onions”, he says.
For the representative of the supermarket association of the largest state in the country, which brings together more than 4,500 commercial establishments, the expectation is that inflation will maintain its downward trend in the coming months.
“We have a record grain harvestwhich should contribute to the drop in basic items in consumers’ baskets”, he mentions.
