“You don’t need to be a guru in the sector to infer that the trigger of emigration via Nicaragua will lead to the dollar reaching 200 pesos in a few weeks.” The quote does not come from any independent page dedicated to tracking the foreign exchange market or from any economic analyst, but from a article in the official Cuban press.
Published this Friday in the newspaper September 5, of Cienfuegos, the text doubts the “exchange strategy” of the Government, which on August 23 established the purchase of foreign currency in cash through the exchange houses (Cadeca), and considers that the measure, for now, is “below expectations.”
Its author, Julio Martínez Molina, recalls that in a previous column of yours pondered the government’s decision calling it “a great support for the citizens”, warning, at the same time, that its success depended “on the level of Cadeca’s operations and the daily existence of freely convertible currency in said establishments”, otherwise, “we would be in the same”.
After this presentation, he attacks: “Although it may be early to assess, everything happened as planned, even for those of us who know little about economics: before the emergence of a foreign exchange strategy born seven months ago (for not having enough currency to sell, in quantity and throughout the day, in the designated units), the urgent counter-response of the informal market would be the raising, even more, of the levies of the strong currencies”.
“The urgent counter-response of the informal market would be to raise, even more, the taxes on strong currencies”
Thus, the note continues, these currencies, which in official establishments have not risen above 123 pesos, are around 165 pesos this Friday in the informal market, where they are expected to continue to rise in the coming weeks to 200 pesos. The conclusion is that “the benefit of the measure, until today, is quite limited.”
To solve the situation, the author “vehemently” hopes that there will be “some institutional aces to pull out”, because “if this does not happen, the schism between the state option, the most favorable by far to the buyer although greatly reduced, and the informal one, will reach unsuspected distances.
On the same day and the days following the entry into force of the measure, this newspaper verified in several tours the results predicted by the official columnist: the dollars would run out soon and the foreign currency began to rise like foam on the black market. Yet another reality, which the Cienfuegos newspaper did not mention: the queues to buy dollars at Cadecas, heavily guardedwhich have come to join so many others, for chicken, for bread or for a cleaning product.
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