De la Garza stressed that long-term inflation expectations are more stable for the rest of the year, because there is a more balanced balance of risks, that is, it is expected that in the face of fears of a global recession, the prices of some raw materials and that the problems in the supply chains are normalized.
Even with the war between Russia and Ukraine, the economist commented that he no longer expects further upward revisions of inflation, since there is a high comparative base with the high price levels of 2021.
In June, the general inflation registered a rate of 7.9% , due to the increase in foods such as potatoes, chicken and oranges. Other products that influenced inflation were packaged soft drinks, electricity and Magna gasoline.
The chief economist of Citbanamex pointed out that within the measures of the Package Against Inflation and Famine (PACIC) launched by the federal government in May, the one that has worked best is gasoline subsidies, which have avoided a greater impact on prices.
The measures that Banxico will take against inflation
The Bank of Mexico has raised the reference rate on nine consecutive occasions in order to keep prices at bay. elevated. In the minutes of the monetary policy meeting last June, the members of the Governing Board indicated that they would be equally forceful with the increase in the rate, if necessary.
The minutes also detail that there was a member of the Board who considered as one of the current challenges to have a “communication free of ambiguities”, with precise qualitative and quantitative information on future monetary policy actions.
In this regard, de la Garza said that this could be the central bank’s acceptance that inflation expectations have become unanchored due, to a certain extent, to the diversity of opinions among the members of the Board.
“Banco de México has had some deficiencies over the last few months, but perhaps more in communication, since it has to do with this inflationary process that has surprised Mexico and the world, and perhaps also the response of Banco de México did not It was as forceful as it should have been at the time,” he said.
