The Colombian macroeconomic figures generally left positive sensations in the first semester, a period that was marked by the achievement and consolidation of the economic recovery, the uncertainty of the war in Ukraine and the presidential election.
(Banco de la República went on the offensive regarding rates).
The recovery of economic activity is a transversal indicator of the current state of the economy. It is worth noting that the country grew its gross domestic product by 10.7% last year and that in the first months of the current year was 8.5%.
In fact, the Government of outgoing President Iván Duque expects the country’s GDP to close the year with a growth of 6.5%, thus rising to the crest of optimism about the Colombian economy expressed by international organizations such as the World Bank ( 5.4%) or the International Monetary Fund (5.8%), which suggest a rebound in the Colombian gross domestic product.
(‘Top’: highest prices that the dollar has had in Colombia).
The growth evidenced in the first three months of the year was explained by the sectors of commerce, industry and entertainment, and from the approach of spending, private consumption, and to a lesser extent investment, according to what was indicated by the Department National Statistics Administration (Dane).
In fact, according to the statistical agency and the Economic Monitoring Indicator (ISE), for the month of April the Colombian economy grew by 12%.
For the month in question, the real production of the manufacturing industry presented a variation of 13.5% compared to April 2021, while real sales registered an increase of 14.6% and employed personnel of 4.3%. Likewise, real retail sales grew 23.3%, employed personnel also did so by 2.8%.
Although the semester ended without having the concrete data of the gross domestic product for the six-month period, the bets are on the good health of the country’s economy.
Although the economy is going from strength to strength, one factor to consider is unemployment. Although it moderated slightly in the last two measurements, it still has important challenges that the next government will have to face.
In the record for the month of May, the unemployment rate was 10.6%, a significant reduction compared to the same month last year when it stood at 15.2%.
Regarding employment, this reached 22.1 million people, an increase of 2.19 million compared to 19.9 million for May 2021. Of these, 984,000 people entered a job in the 13 main cities and metropolitan areas, according to the agency.
On the other side of the coin, unemployment, a total of 940,000 people left, with which the global figure went to 2.64 million citizens under this situation, when a year ago there were 3.5 million people.
However, there are still gaps to be addressed, such as the gap between unemployment between women and men.
According to data from the report for the fifth month of the year, the female unemployment figure is 13.7% while the male figure is 8.4%. A slight reduction from 14.2% and 8.9%, for women and men, respectively, for last April.
Similarly, Dane explained, there was also a reduction in the population outside the labor market. In May 2021 it corresponded to a universe of 14.7 million Colombians, while for this May 2022 they are located at 14.1 million. That is, 688,000 citizens entered the labor market, either because they are employed or because they are looking for work (unemployed).
On the other hand, in fiscal terms, the fiscal deficit is expected to be around -5.6% of GDP, an improvement from the previous -6.2%.
COULD BE BETTER
Another indicator that shows the health of the Colombian economy in this period is inflation.
The country has not been far from the growing wave of inflation in the world and its records have led to record numbers in 20 years.
However, last May there was a slight reduction and the cost of living rate stood at 9.07% for May, although it continues to be driven by food, which has already registered an advance of 21.6% so far this year. .
There are also considerable gaps between the socioeconomic standard of living of Colombian households. Between low-income and high-income families, for example, there is a lag of 2.35 percentage points, since for the poor, inflation is 10.68%, for those with higher incomes it was 7.73%. For middle class households it was 9.2%.
BRIEFCASE
