The wheat face the worst sowing scenario of the last 12 yearswith an area estimated at 6.2 million hectares (about 700,000 fewer than a year ago) due to the drought and the expected return of frost in the coming days, and the maintenance, for the third consecutive year, of the climatic phenomenon “La Little girl”.
According to Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR)the sowing of wheat is stopped in a large part of the Pampas region, so the area dedicated to cereal would fall 10% due to “the serious problems of lack of water in the profiles and in the sowing bed in the soil.”
“We are going through a quite atypical scenario with the influence of three consecutive periods of cooling of the Central Equatorial Pacific at Niña levels”warned the consultant Alfredo Elorriaga.
We are going through a quite atypical scenario with the influence of three consecutive periods of cooling of the Central Equatorial Pacific at Niña levels Alfredo Elorriaga, consultant
For the specialist, “of the last three fine seasons, the current condition of the profiles shows that this cycle begins with the worst edaphic moisture conditions”, when more than 40% of the expected wheat remains to be sown in the core region.
“The situation is very serious towards the western Mediterranean where the lack of water in millimeters already exceeds the average normal supply for the entire winter”he added.
In its weekly climate report, the BCR warns that “cold circulations dominate and the return of frosts is expected in the coming days; and in the Pacific, the latest ONI index published by the National Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows further cooling: it went from -1.0 to -1.1 at the beginning of June; ‘La Niña’ is still active and strengthening”.
Currently, 80% of the Pampas region is in a dry to very dry situation, as can be seen in the soil moisture classification anomaly image.
The center of the drought is in Cordova Y saint Louis and begins to gain ground in the NW of Buenos Aires and the center of Santa Fe.
Currently the situation of lack of water is more serious than that of 2020; and to find a more adjusted humidity situation, we must go back to June 2009.
For this reason, for many producers, the possibility of rains in the next fifteen days is essential to finally sow or change crops.
However, the short term forecasts They indicate the entry of another front of cold and dry air that will cause a new drop in temperatures and the development of frosts, removing the possibility of rains over the Pampas region.
“At the moment, the probabilistic models show that we may have to wait until the second half of June to receive some rain relief and, if so, the trend continues to favor the extreme northeast of the country,” explains specialist José Luis Aiello.
In that sense, from the Cereal Exchange they predicted for the next few days the rapid passage of a storm front, which will cause almost no rain, but with its advance the arrival of polar winds will occur, extending its action over most of the area. agricultural, with risk of frost in much of its extension.
In the following days, a storm front will produce focused rainfall over the center-east and northeast of the agricultural area, while the rest of its extension will receive little to no records and the Cordillera Sur will observe some snowfall, the entity added in its Agroclimatic Perspective.
With an implementation advance of only 17%, against 30% last year, the estimate for wheat planting drops from 6.35 million hectares in May to the current 6.2 million; thus, the cereal harvest would reach 18.5 million tons, estimated the BCR after taking into account area losses and a yield of 31 qq/ha.
