The immediate effects of Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global economy, are already being very relevant, according to the Spanish BBVA.
Carlos Torres Vila, president of BBVA globally, he stressed that, after the covid-19 pandemicit came from an environment of clear economic recovery, with strong growth in activity last year.
“Also in the first months of this year, we have seen a significant recovery in consumption and investment indicators, even reaching pre-pandemic levels in all the countries where we are present, but the invasion alters this path,” he said.
In the framework of National Meeting of Regional Councilors of BBVA Mexicohighlighted that the conflict significantly increases the uncertainty about the evolution of the economies, since it has been seen how the financial markets have registered falls, and a strong increase in volatility, in addition to price increases in all raw materials, especially oil and gas.
“With this, the war is already having a significant negative effect on inflation, also affecting the confidence of agents, generating a lot of uncertainty and affecting economic growth forecasts,” he said.
The president of BBVA explained that this situation has led to downward revisions in growth expectations by its economic studies area in the different countries in which the bank has a presence. “Although it is also true that there are significant differences between the countries of some regions and others.”
In this sense, he mentioned that the average is a growth forecast of around 2.5%, both in 2022 and in 2023, but he specified that the final magnitude will depend on many factors such as the responses that the authorities have, the monetary policies and fiscal, as well as commercial and regulatory.
In the case of Mexico, he said, the adjustment of the estimates for 2022 is also significant, but he highlighted the good prospects that the country has in the long term.
“In the year 2023, growth of 2% is expected, and this figure will foreseeably accelerate to around 3% in successive years,” he stated.
Carlos Torres Vila explained that Mexico will benefit from the economic growth of the United States, and also from greater investment, thanks to the new trade agreement with this country and Canada, in addition to the relocation of supply chains, where he considered that Mexico should be one of the most benefited countries.
We are going to a different world from globalization
the president of BBVA He referred that the armed conflict has important repercussions on geopolitics and world economy, and conditions international relations in all areas.
“We are facing a new order in which autonomy will prevail in strategic issues such as energy, food, raw materials, technology, defense, data. We are heading towards a more fragmented world, a world that is very different from the growing globalization of recent decades”, he considered.
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