Marco Belmonte / La Paz
The General State Budget (PGE) 2022 foresees an economic growth of 5.1% and a fiscal deficit of 8% that, according to experts, will be financed at the cost of greater debt and tax pressure on companies and the formal sector.
The Minister of Economy, Marcelo Montenegro, reported that the PGE in turn projects an inflation rate of 3.4% and public investment with emphasis on the productive sector that reaches 5,015 million dollars.
“We are increasing the budget, the growth rate of the economy is increasing, the fiscal deficit is being reduced, public investment is increasing and it has diversified into various projects, mainly productive,” said the authority.
The consolidated PGE 2022 amounts to 235,090 million bolivianos, while the aggregate PGE reaches 304,045 million bolivianos, which implies a growth of 2.9%.
Budget revenue was projected based on an international oil price of $ 50.47.
The fuel subsidy next year will reach 4,794.6 million bolivianos, an amount higher than the 3,013.4 million that was set this year.
The subsidy for food and services will be 168.1 million bolivianos and 125.6 million bolivianos, respectively.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) foresees 4% growth in 2022 while the World Bank, only 3.5%.
Financing the deficit
The fiscal deficit that this year was projected at 9.7% of GDP for 2022 will fall to 8%, according to the PGE projections.
How will it be financed? According to Montenegro, the PGE 2022 foresees 25.1% financing from internal sources and 15.6% from external sources.
External financing will reach 36,649.4 million bolivianos, which is 38.3% lower than this year, while internal financing will rise by 27.5%, to 58,927.6 million bolivianos.
The authority ruled out the possibility of resorting to a salary cut or dismissal of personnel in the public sector to save resources.
“Our policy has never been to reduce salaries or lay off people, what was done this year is to optimize items that were not used and that gave us significant savings and we are not going to follow the logic of laying off staff, saving in salaries and salaries ”, he specified.
Montenegro reported that the issuance of sovereign bonds of 3 billion dollars that this year could not be completed is pending for 2022.
“The issuance of bonds is latent, they are financing possibilities, but it is not mandatory to go to the market if cheaper sources are obtained. The price of bonds is increasing due to the volatility of the markets. We must evaluate when it is convenient for the State to go out and collect these resources, ”the minister stressed.
Expenses
According to data from the PGE 2022, current expenses will rise by 4% to 134,946 million bolivianos, of which wages and salaries total 45,235 million bolivianos and will increase by 4.7%.
Spending on goods and services will rise by 8.1% to 58,347 million bolivianos and capital expenditures by 29.6% reaching 39,048 million bolivianos, reveals the PGE. An important expense this year will be the amortization of the foreign debt, which will reach 8,357 million bolivianos with an increase of 100.3%.
Income and decline in HDI
Montenegro assured that in 2022 current income as a percentage of GDP will reach 45.9%, above current expenditures 44.9% of GDP.
A 12.1% growth in tax collection is projected for the following year to 50,470 million bolivianos.
Without counting on the Direct Tax on Hydrocarbons (IDH) and without the Special Tax on Hydrocarbons and Derivatives (IEHD), revenues will rise from 37,028 million bolivianos to 42,408 million bolivianos.
Income from the HDI will drop from 6,304 million bolivianos to 5,625 million bolivianos, it is observed in the project.
IEHD resources rise from 1,708 million bolivianos to 2,438 million bolivianos.
Montenegro explained that, among the income, the operating income stands out, which will grow by 9.6%, up to 55,563.8 million bolivianos. This item highlights the contribution of Bolivian Fiscal Oil Fields (YPFB) with 43,028.7 million Bolivianos to the budget.
Boliviana de Aviación (BoA) will generate 1,755.1 million bolivianos and the rest of public companies, 5,395.7 million bolivianos.
Analysis
Miguel Roca, deputy of CC, of the Planning and Economy Commission, pointed out that they continue to bet on public investment in state-owned companies, when in the past resources were wasted on projects that did not produce results.
“The collection increases by 12.1% and that is going to be taken from the taxpayers themselves. More taxes will be charged to continue wasting and, since that is not enough, they will resort to internal debt, “he said.
The director of the Cruceño Statistics Institute, Juan Pablo Suárez, said that it is positive that the deficit drops to 8%, but the growth of 5.1% is optimistic because international organizations foresee a lower rate.
He explained that this will be financed with higher external and internal debt and payments to construction companies will be delayed.
In addition, he said that greater tax pressure is expected as already announced with the collection of taxes for consumption of digital services such as Netflix.
“Taxes pressure through resolutions, if spending is not lowered, the money comes out of taxes or debt,” he warned.
The health budget rises by 3.3% and the education budget by 6.7%
The health budget next year will rise by 3.3% to 23.59 billion Bolivians, according to the projections of the General State Budget (PGE) 2022, presented by the Ministry of Economy and Public Finance.
Resources for education will increase by 6.7%, to 25,370 million Bolivians in 2022. 10.8% of the PGE goes to this sector and 10% to health.
The defense budget will be 4,664 million Bolivians and the Government, which includes the Police, 4,734 million Bolivians.
Spending on pensions will rise 3% to 8,528 million bolivianos. Of this amount, 4,388 million bolivianos will be used to cover the income of retirees from the pay-as-you-go system, 3,640 million bolivianos go to offset contributions and 501 million bolivianos to other expenses.
Transfers to governorates will increase from 3,942 million bolivianos this year to 4,001 million bolivianos in 2022.
Resources for municipalities will rise from 8,462 million Bolivians to 8,977 million Bolivians and transfers to universities from 3,427 million Bolivians to 3,614 million Bolivians.
Miguel Roca, deputy of CC, of the Planning Commission, pointed out that the president of the Lower House, Freddy Mamani, kept the PGE document since October 29 and that is a crime.
