Coronavirus notifications increased this week compared to the previous one, although at a slower rate, while hospitalizations in therapy and deceased people stopped descending, specialists analyzed while from the Ministry of Health they pointed out that “there is a very important increase in cases” but “in a totally different situation” due to the wide coverage of vaccination.
“If we order the cases according to the date of onset of symptoms, it is observed a jump in the week of May 8 to 15 (4,445 daily average) compared to the previous week (which had a daily average of 2,417)“Conicet physicist and researcher Jorge Aliaga told Télam.
And he added that “however, this past week (from May 15 to 21) the cases remain at a daily average of 4,090, although surely this does not imply a real decrease because cases of this week will surely be reported during the next one”.
If it is only observed by date of notification, that is, as reported in the report, This week’s cases reported by the Ministry of Health were 43,487, which represents 27.9% more cases than last Sunday (33,989).
In other words, seen by notification date, although there is an increase, there is also a slowdown in growth since the increase for the week of May 8 to 15 had been 92.61% compared to the week of May 1 to 7 ( 17,646).
“In all jurisdictions, the cases continue to rise, although it is impressive that at a slower speed; this may imply that we are not far from the maximum,” Aliaga said.
In relation to the number of deceased people, the specialist calculated that there is an average of 40 deaths per week (between 3 and 4 per day sorted by date of death)and “it’s a figure that stopped going down weeks ago, we’ll see if when they load late deaths they don’t appear more than these last few days.”
There is also a very slight increase in ICU admissions of people with Covid: the week of 8 to 14 the average was 296 while this last week (15 to 21) it was 303.
“Although the difference is very little, at least what we can see is that it stopped going down”Held.
And he explained that “this is already known behavior of the dynamics of the pandemic: first the cases increase, after 15 or 20 days the hospitalizations, and another 15 or 20 days later the deceased people,” Aliaga described, who recalled that “What the vaccines did was, precisely, that the proportion of people hospitalized and deceased with respect to those infected is much less than in previous waves.”
In the same vein, the accountant Martín Barrionuevo described that “we had a week of lower growth in cases, which may also have been influenced by the holiday, which always affects testing and notification.”
“Still, we also see that positivity (confirmed on tests) in the City of Buenos Aires tends to stabilize, in more than 30%; similar to the national average; in the rest of the jurisdictions it increases; We have to see if it is a trend in the next report,” she said.
In relation to the number of deceased, Barrionuevo also observed a “change of trend in the deceased, with a slight tendency to growth”.
For her part, the national director of Epidemiology and Strategic Information, Analía Rearte, told Télam Radio today that “we are entering a very, very important increase in cases, but in a totally different situation from previous years for different reasons.”
“On the one hand, due to the vaccination coverage that we have not only from the initial schemes but also from the reinforcements, which now become the main axis of disease and mortality prevention,” he explained.
And, on the other, “we have a virus that is much more transmissible, which is even more transmissible than the one that circulated in February, so (…) it is transmitted before the appearance of symptoms, for example.”
“We also have co-circulation of other respiratory viruses that we did not have before”he added.
In this context, Rearte emphasized that “there are measures that will serve and will help us get through this winter in the best possible way: the main and most important is vaccination.”
The epidemiologist indicated that “90% of the people who died are over 50 years old, so it is very important that this group, in addition to the initial scheme, have their reinforcements (the first and if more than four months have passed, the second); that goes to change the prognosis a lot”.
“On the other hand, as it is such a transmissible virus, we have to take extreme general prevention measures; in the presence of symptoms we have to isolate ourselves (whether SARS-CoV-2 or not) and we do not have to wait for the result of the test, yes. you feel bad you don’t have to attend social events, work or school,” he said.
Finally, he remembered that “the use of chinstraps and ventilation are two key strategies to prevent the transmission of all viruses a little “
