The political scientist Manuel Orozco pointed out that the Nicaraguan government, in its commitment to “isolate itself” from the international community, sought a rapprochement with the United States to alleviate a little the suffering of isolation that “is much greater than what they had bet on.”
“The regime is looking for a way to have some kind of communication, which it had suspended. (…) However, since the war with Ukraine, Nicaragua has seen that the level of isolation it is suffering and will continue to suffer is much greater than what they had been betting on. In some way, an attempt at communication was made, which they backed down because the family made it known that it was not the time,” Orozco said in an interview for the program. This week.
He assured that the United States is open to the possibility of a dialogue with the Ortega dictatorship, as long as the regime “shows signs of rapprochement in relation to the situation of political prisoners,” as the Biden administration has repeatedly stated. occasions.
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In addition, he warned in the Sunday program that as long as the Ortega regime “does not respond”, the US government is seeking to define “lines of action” to continue applying diplomatic pressure and one of them is the effective implementation of the Renacer Law.
Orozco raises the need to guarantee a democratic transition through international pressure, in the case of Nicaragua “it depends on the realignment between the Republicans and the Democrats” to exert greater pressure against the regime.
“One of the reasons why the Renacer Law has not been thoroughly implemented has been because of the internal debate that takes place in Congress between the two parties. However, the consensus is being formed, or in some way, reconforming between the sides, starting with the limits of where Nicaragua should be treated », he stressed in This Week.
In the quest to make the Renacer Law effective, one of the important issues “that is being taken very seriously is how to suspend Nicaragua from Cafta, starting with the implementation in some cases of penalties such as the violation of the labor agreement and others components that are located within the commercial relationship with the United States,” he said.
Orozco assured that the sanctions imposed on the Ortega-Murillo administration “have had a fairly strong impact. It can be seen from different elements. One of them is the way the regime has responded with a tantrum by imprisoning many people, through political trials. They practically have one person in jail for each sanction.”
“There is an exit from the circle of power that has been fleeing from the regime and the country, precisely for fear of being sanctioned. There is more internal pressure on how to prevent these sanctions, if you see the way Rosario Murillo’s son (Laureano Ortega) tries to approach the United States, it is an example that they have great concern about the impact, “he added.
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“Their continuation is very possible and it is very likely that the Nicaraguan Army will be one of the following to be sanctioned, because it has recently been one of the accomplices in human rights violations,” he warned.
Economic diplomacy as pressure on the regime
In the Inter-American Dialogue report, the Nicaraguan political scientist suggested using “economic diplomacy” to continue pressuring the Ortega-Murillo dictatorship.
“Economic diplomacy efforts would imply signaling to the regime a willingness to work on some kind of reconstruction of the country, whenever Nicaragua shows signs of returning to a rule of law, beginning with the release of political prisoners,” he said.
«Economic diplomacy would become a subsequent tool to any type of show that Nicaragua gives. At this time, the responsibility falls on the Sandinista regime to try to be more conciliatory. It is quite a complicated condition given that Nicaragua has practically become a rogue state. That exposes it to greater forms of international pressure that include economic pressure », he pointed out.
The United States and its involvement in the Nicaraguan crisis
Manuel Orozco stated that the United States «has assumed in the last two years a role of betting on regional multilateralism. However, the political situation in the midst of a pandemic, and a deterioration of the rule of law in many Latin American countries, has renewed the urgency that, together with other countries such as Canada and Chile, they assume a more proactive leadership in the defense of democratic interests of Latin Americans.
“Right now, the US is reconsidering how to penetrate Latin America with greater leadership. Nicaragua is basically one of the nerve centers of this leadership transition. The fang that they are going to put on the Renacer Law, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, the influence that they are going to have within the OAS (Organization of American States), is going to be another form of pressure », he said. .
“There are other forms of pressure that are going to happen later, but the US is definitely clear that its international role is paramount and it is part of its foreign policy strategy, after the Trump administration,” he added.
