Washington.- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned this Wednesday of a possible fragmentation of the World economy. By which countries restrict their trade relations with their partners or allies, as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In a virtual press conference in the framework of the spring assembly that the financial entity is holding this week, the managing director of the fund, Kristalina Georgievpraised the benefits of globalization in recent decades and lamented the signs of a change of direction that are taking place in the global economy.
georgieva highlighted that the global gross domestic product (GDP) it has tripled since 1990. And that the benefits have been, above all, the developing countries. Which now have an economy 4.5 times larger than then.
In addition, as explained by the managing director of the institution, poverty has been reduced considerably.
“The irony is that a more fragmented world requires more cooperation to prevent gigantic risks from materializing,” he said.
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world economic growth
The commercial retreat of the countries goes beyond the sanctions implemented by the West against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. It is part of a pattern of progressive trade divergence between the bloc of democracies, made up of the US, Europe and Japan, among others, and that of authoritarian regimes, which includes Russia and China. Georgieva assured that from the IMF their priority is to provide objective analyzes of the benefits of cooperation and the risks of fragmentation.
“This is a difficult time and very disturbing events are taking place, but we are interdependent and the need for cooperation is very strong.” She assured the economist, who said that she never imagined that she would see a war of these dimensions again in Europe.
However, as director of an institution with 190 member countries, she assured that she could attest that although cooperation is more difficult when there are tensions, it “is not impossible” and important decisions can continue to be made.
The IMF on Tuesday released an update to its projections for economic growth for 2022 and the years to come. For the first time they reflect the impact of war in ukraine and according to which the vast majority of countries will experience a rate of bottom growth than was anticipated before the conflict.
This Wednesday was the turn of the report of “tax surveillance” of the entity In which the evolution of the public deficit or surplus is projected for each country and the ratio between public debt and GDP.
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IMF figures
For Latin American countries, the IMF forecasts that 2022 will close with an average deficit of 4.7% of GDP, which will be reduced to 4.2% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024.
Within the region, the Fund expects large variations for 2022, ranging from 7.6% forecast for Brazil to 1.5% for Chile, passing through 3.2% for Mexico, 3.8% for Argentina, a 2.4% for Peru, 4.6% for Colombia, 2.7% for the Dominican Republic and 2.5% for Uruguay.
“Projections for most Latin American countries point to deficits much lower than in 2020, due to the end of the exceptional fiscal measures decreed by the pandemic and the return of economic growth and therefore of tax revenue,” he said in an interview with Efe. Paul Maurodeputy director of IMF Financial Affairs Department.
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Regarding the weight of the public debt with respect to the GDPthe IMF projects that this will stand at 71.7% on average in the region in 2022, and will remain stable around this figure for the next five years.
For Spain, the financial institution projects a deficit of 5.3% of GDP in 2022; 4.3% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024, in addition to closing this year with a debt/GDP ratio of 116.4%.
In the rest of the world, the IMF projects that the United States will close 2022 with a public deficit of 4.8%; the euro zone, 4.3%; the United Kingdom, 4.3%; China, 7.7%; Japan, 7.8%, and India, 9.9%.
