The Brazilian economy is expected to grow 2.5% next year, after growing 1.5% in 2022. The estimate is contained in the Budget Guidelines Law Project (PLDO) 2023, sent today (14) to the National Congress.
By official estimates, inflation by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) will fall to 3.3% in 2023 and to 3% in 2024 and 2025, against 6.45% forecast for this year. The projections for the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), used to correct the minimum wage, will be in the same percentages: 3.3% in 2023 and 3% in the two following years, lower than the 6.7% projected for this year. year.
Regarding the IPCA, the official inflation index, the projection for next year is slightly above the center of the 3.25% target defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN). As the council determines a margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points, inflation could be between 1.75% and 4.75% next year without resulting in a breach of the target.
The project also provides for an average of 10% per year for the Selic rate (basic interest rates in the economy) in 2023, 7.7% in 2024 and 7.1% in 2025. Currently, the Selic rate is at 11.75% per year. . The text sent to Congress predicts an average exchange rate of BRL 5.30 for 2023, 2024 and 2025 and an average price of a barrel of oil (used to estimate federal revenue from royalties) at US$ 90.2 next year, US $82.7 in 2024 and $78 in 2025.
