Analysis released today (31) by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea) estimates a 1.1% growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of goods and services produced in the country) for 2022, maintaining the forecast made at the end of the year. of December last year. For 2023, the forecast is for an increase of 1.7%.
The estimates appear in the new edition of Visão Geral da Conjuntura, a quarterly assessment of the Brazilian economy carried out by IPEA. The six analysts who signed the document assess various factors that impact on GDP, such as economic conditions, production and inflation.
In the projection, a reduction in the expected growth for the agricultural sector in 2022 was observed, from 2.8% to 1%. The drop was driven by an 8.8% reduction in soybean production estimates.
There was also a worsening in the industry forecast for which a retraction of 0.8% is estimated. In the last analysis, made at the end of December, the forecast was for stagnation. The review, according to the document, takes into account the lingering effects of the disruption of global supply chains and the lagged impacts of further domestic monetary tightening.
On the other hand, there was an improvement in the services sector, which jumped from 1.3% to 1.8%. The evolution considers the gradual reduction of the effects of the pandemic on urban mobility and economic activities. “The recovery of the service sector should support the good performance of the occupancy indicators, generating a positive effect on domestic demand”, evaluate the Ipea analysts.
The forecast scenario for GDP in 2023, a rise of 1.7%, bets on a gradual reduction in interest rates starting in January of next year. The forecast of a drop in inflation rates, which should favor the credit market and investments, was another element considered. The six analysts believe that the increase in commodity prices tends to be temporary and that the exchange rate should remain stable in relation to the end of 2022, at R$ 5.20.
“Even more importantly, we believe that there will be less uncertainty due to the end of the effects of the war in Ukraine and the pandemic, which should guarantee a positive evolution of activities related to trade and services. With regard to fiscal policy, this scenario assumes maintaining a framework of fiscal rules compatible with the commitment to fiscal discipline, keeping under control the risk associated with the evolution of public accounts”, they add.
Inflation
According to the analysis, the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), considering the country’s official inflation, should close 2022 at 6.5%. In December last year, the projection was 5.5%. The estimate also changed for the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), from 5.5% to 6.3%. For 2023, rates of 3.6% were projected for both the IPCA and the INPC.
Analysts call attention to a scenario of inflationary deceleration. “Even above the initially projected level, the IPCA and the INPC should end 2022 with a variation well below that observed in 2021”, the analysts point out. The IPCA closed last year with a high of 10.06%.
