In short
- Senator Flávio Bolsonaro won Brazil’s first round on 5 October by less than 2% of the vote, the narrowest gap between first and second place in a Brazilian presidential election.
- Abstention in the first round reached a record 21%, and eight of the ten cities with the highest abstention rates are in Minas Gerais.
- Lula took 3.8 million fewer votes in the first round than in 2022, while Flávio Bolsonaro won 5 million more votes than his father Jair Bolsonaro did in that election.
- Polls three weeks after the first round show the two candidates level, with Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by fractions of a percentage point.
- Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest, and his son has said he will pardon him and receive the presidential sash from him if elected.
Brazil holds its presidential runoff on Sunday, three weeks after a first round on 5 October, with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro level in the polls and both campaigns chasing abstainers in Minas Gerais, the bellwether state where Lula trailed by almost five percentage points.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, won the first round by less than 2% of the vote — the narrowest gap between first and second place in a Brazilian presidential election — while abstention reached a record 21%.
What do the polls show before the runoff?
Surveys during the three-week campaign have narrowed to a near-tie, with Flávio Bolsonaro marginally ahead, after a debate where the candidates traded personal attacks. “The scenario is one of a very tight tie, but with Lula’s campaign performing markedly better in the runoff,” said Manoel Leonardo Santos, a political scientist at the Federal University of Minas Gerais.
Why is Minas Gerais decisive?
Minas Gerais has Brazil’s second-largest electorate after São Paulo, and no candidate has ever won the presidency without carrying it. Lula finished almost five percentage points behind there on 5 October, and eight of the ten cities with the highest abstention rates are in the state. Abstention is more common among lower-income, less-educated and older voters, groups that lean towards Lula. “If Lula’s voters turn out, he can win, but there is absolutely no guarantee that he will manage to make that happen,” said Helcimara de Souza Telles, a political scientist at the Federal University of Minas Gerais.
How are the campaigns closing?
Both candidates picked Belo Horizonte, the state capital, for some of their final events. Lula, 81, held his last rally there on the preceding Wednesday; Flávio Bolsonaro’s was scheduled for the morning of 24 October. Minas Gerais governor-elect Cleitinho Azevedo told a Bolsonaro gathering last Tuesday “not to think that we have already won the election and keep asking for votes”, featuring a video call from the senator and a 23ft inflatable figure of his father.
Jodersson Diego, a 33-year-old dance teacher in Belo Horizonte, said he had persuaded a student who voted for Flávio Bolsonaro to switch sides; 17-year-old student Ester Nascimento, at Lula’s final rally, said: “We can’t let the far right take power again and destroy all of our rights.”
What is Lula relying on in the final stretch?
Lula took 3.8 million fewer votes in the first round than in 2022, when he beat Flávio Bolsonaro’s father, then president Jair Bolsonaro. His team overhauled the president’s online communications: Lula, who does not own a mobile phone, began recording selfie videos, and supporters joined a WhatsApp channel called “Lula’s Army”, where congressman André Janones sent daily instructions on spreading pro-Lula content. For the first time, Lula’s digital reach overtook Bolsonaro’s. He also approved a package of benefits within the limits of electoral law, raising and bringing forward cash-transfer payments, and won congressional approval of a shorter working week that could affect 30 million workers.
What has Flávio Bolsonaro promised his father?
Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest and chose his eldest son to stand in his place. Flávio Bolsonaro has said that if elected he will pardon his father and receive the presidential sash from him.
Frequently asked questions
Who is ahead in Brazil’s presidential runoff polls?
Surveys three weeks after the 5 October first round show Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro level, with Bolsonaro ahead by fractions of a percentage point.
Why is Minas Gerais important in Brazil’s election?
Minas Gerais has Brazil’s second-largest electorate after São Paulo and no candidate has ever won the presidency without carrying it. Lula finished almost five percentage points behind there in the first round, and eight of the ten cities with the highest abstention rates are in the state.
What has Flávio Bolsonaro promised about his father?
Flávio Bolsonaro has said that if elected he will pardon his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest, and receive the presidential sash from him.
How many votes did Lula lose compared with 2022?
Lula received 3.8 million fewer votes in the first round than in 2022, when he defeated Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio Bolsonaro took 5 million more votes than his father did in that election.
With reporting from The Guardian.
Stock image, not from the events described. City Skyline — Joe deSousa / Wikimedia Commons (CC0 1.0)
