In short
- Brazilians vote on 4 October 2026 in a presidential election; a runoff would be held on 25 October if no candidate wins 50% plus one of the votes.
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term against Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, a senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
- Donald Trump told leaders of the Shield of the Americas that rightwing candidates had won all seven presidential elections held in the region since his second term began.
- Six Latin American countries remain under leftwing governments: Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Guatemala, Cuba and Nicaragua.
- Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest after being convicted of attempting a coup to overturn his 2022 defeat by Lula.
Brazilians vote on Sunday, 4 October, in a presidential election polls describe as neck and neck between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, and Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, the far-right senator son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. If no candidate wins 50% plus one of the votes, a runoff will be held on 25 October.
Why does Brazil’s election matter beyond Brazil?
Donald Trump told a dozen Latin American leaders in New York that rightwing candidates had won all seven presidential elections held in the region since his second term began. “Everybody I’ve endorsed has won,” the US president said to most of the leaders of the Shield of the Americas, an anti-drug-cartel coalition of 15 countries governed by the right or far right. Those victories, and the US takeover of Venezuela after the capture of Nicolás Maduro, have left six Latin American countries under leftwing governments: Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Guatemala, Cuba and Nicaragua.
Pedro Telles, a professor at the School of International Relations at Brazil’s FGV university, said Trump “really does take seriously the idea that the Americas should be his back yard”. Sandra Borda Guzmán, an associate professor of political science at Colombia’s Universidad de los Andes, said a far-right victory would “align the region unconditionally with the dictates of the US”.
What separates Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro on US policy?
The candidates differ sharply over the US, including what has become Trump’s main foreign policy for the region: the so-called war on drugs, used to justify dozens of airstrikes on boats that have killed more than 230 people and joint operations involving US military personnel on land. Washington has separately dropped Venezuela and Bolivia from its drug non-compliance list.
Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to join the Shield of the Americas and to follow an “iron fist” approach to crime. Lula has raised concerns about sovereignty and said it is “sad to see the inferiority complex of Latin American presidents” in the coalition. Privileged access to Brazil’s rare earths and critical minerals was one of the conditions Washington imposed in exchange for not applying tariffs, which Lula rejected; Flávio Bolsonaro has offered those resources as the “solution” to help the US “break its dependence on China”.
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a senator and the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest after being convicted of attempting a coup to overturn his 2022 defeat by Lula. Michael Shifter, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, said “democracy is also kind of on the line here”, because Flávio Bolsonaro is running only because his father cannot. Analysts say the senator, best known for his family name and corruption allegations, has become a serious challenger; his only previous bid for an executive role ended with fourth place in Rio de Janeiro’s 2016 mayoral race.
What is at stake in the final stretch?
Unemployment, poverty and inflation have fallen in Brazil and average incomes have risen, but household debt has also increased, something many attribute to online betting, which Lula banned days before the vote after Jair Bolsonaro left it unregulated.
The race includes other candidates but is polarised between the two leaders, with Lula seeking a fourth term on 4 October against Flávio Bolsonaro. The two have alternated as frontrunners in the final stretch, making the outcome unpredictable.
Frequently asked questions
Who is running in Brazil’s presidential election on 4 October?
Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term against Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, a far-right senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
When would a runoff take place in Brazil?
If no candidate wins 50% plus one of the votes, a runoff will be held on 25 October.
Why does Brazil’s election matter to the United States?
Analysts quoted on the race describe Brazil as possibly the last country in the region able to resist US policy, and say a Flávio Bolsonaro victory would produce an almost completely aligned region.
What is the Shield of the Americas?
It is an anti-drug-cartel coalition of 15 countries governed by the right or far right, whose leaders met Donald Trump in New York.
With reporting from The Guardian.
Stock image, not from the events described. City Skyline — Joe deSousa / Wikimedia Commons (CC0 1.0)
