In short
- Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will seek a fourth term in the election on 4 October 2026, weeks before his 81st birthday.
- The vote will be Lula’s seventh presidential election since his first in 1989; he first won the presidency in 2002 and was re-elected in 2006.
- Lula faces senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years over the failed 2023 coup attempt.
- Frei Betto, a Dominican theologian and friend of Lula for more than four decades, says he expects Lula to win one last term.
- Betto says a Flávio Bolsonaro victory would give him the power to pardon those convicted over the failed 2023 coup attempt.
Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will seek a fourth term in the election on 4 October, weeks before his 81st birthday, against senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Polls put the two candidates neck and neck.
When is Brazil’s election and who is Lula facing?
The 4 October vote will be Lula’s seventh presidential election since 1989. He ran three unsuccessful campaigns before winning in 2002 as Brazil’s first elected working-class president, then won re-election in 2006. In 2022 he defeated the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, and a week into his third term he thwarted a coup attempt; Jair Bolsonaro was later sentenced to 27 years over the failed putsch.
Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator, told a rally in Brazil’s north-east: “You’re looking at the next president of Brazil.” Lula said on a podcast: “I honestly don’t see how we can lose this election. I really don’t,” though analysts say the contest is too close to call.
Who is Frei Betto, the friend predicting a Lula victory?
Frei Betto, a Dominican theologian and writer whose full name is Carlos Alberto Libânio Christo, has been a friend of Lula’s for more than four decades. Betto says that hours after Lula’s inauguration on 1 January 2023, the two talked for 40 minutes at the foreign ministry in Brasília. Betto recalls telling Lula, “This is your penultimate term,” and Lula replying: “No, Betto! It’s the last one. I’m done!” Betto says he was certain Lula would run again. “And sure enough, he did,” he said last month.
Betto, 82, was jailed twice during Brazil’s 1964-85 military dictatorship: 15 days of beatings at the navy’s secret service base in Rio, then nearly four years behind bars in São Paulo for helping political dissidents flee abroad. Of Lula he says: “Politics is his calling. He’s a political animal – he breathes it 25 hours a day.”
What does Betto fear if Flávio Bolsonaro wins?
Betto says the stakes include “the return of a neo-fascist government that washed its hands during the pandemic and dismissed as insignificant the deaths of 700,000 people in Brazil from Covid-19”. He warns that a Flávio Bolsonaro presidency would bring “complete alignment with the US” and that Brazil “would become what Venezuela is today: an American protectorate”.
Betto fears a second Bolsonaro presidency would help Donald Trump tighten his grip on Latin America, where Washington is trying to reassert its dominance. He cites the January invasion by US special forces that abducted Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. In Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez has promised elections without setting a date.
Could those jailed over the 2023 coup attempt be pardoned?
Jair Bolsonaro received a 27-year sentence for the failed coup attempt, and his oldest son is seeking the presidency in his place. Betto says: “All of this could be overturned with Flávio Bolsonaro’s election, because he would have the power to pardon them.” Betto also argues that Brazil’s failure to investigate the crimes of the 1964-85 dictatorship the way Chile, Argentina and Uruguay did has left “a very strong dictatorial residue in the Brazilian armed forces … that could resurface at any moment”.
Lula’s campaign accused Trump this week of seeking to “colonise” Brazil and of trying to sway the election in Flávio Bolsonaro’s favour to capture its natural resources. Trump’s push in Latin America has also included a meeting with Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez in New York.
Frequently asked questions
When is Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?
Brazil’s presidential election is on 4 October 2026. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking a fourth term and faces senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with polls showing the two neck and neck.
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
Flávio Bolsonaro is a Brazilian senator and the oldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years over the failed 2023 coup attempt. He is Lula’s rival in the October election.
Who is Frei Betto?
Frei Betto, whose full name is Carlos Alberto Libânio Christo, is a Dominican theologian and writer who has been a friend of Lula’s for more than four decades. He was jailed twice during Brazil’s 1964-85 military dictatorship.
What does Betto say would happen if Flávio Bolsonaro wins?
Betto warns that a Flávio Bolsonaro presidency would mean “complete alignment with the US” and says the new president would have the power to pardon those convicted over the 2023 coup attempt.
With reporting from The Guardian.
Stock image, not from the events described. City Skyline — Joe deSousa / Wikimedia Commons (CC0 1.0)
