In short
- The World Meteorological Organization says the current El Niño could be the strongest in more than 70 years and last until at least February 2027.
- Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific’s key monitoring region have been more than 2C above average in recent weeks, and monthly readings could approach 4C above average, which would make it the strongest El Niño since at least 1950.
- The Panama Canal will reduce the number of vessels passing through by more than 10% on Thursday in anticipation of lower rainfall; about 14,000 ships a year use the waterway, which brings Panama about $3bn a year.
- Indonesia is fighting wildfires that have burned more than 107,000 hectares nationwide this dry season.
- China expects seven typhoons to make landfall this year; three hit in July alone — Bavi, Noul and Maysak — leaving dozens dead.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released data showing the current El Niño could be the strongest in more than 70 years and last until at least February 2027. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world has entered a “danger zone of extreme weather” as the phenomenon’s impacts are felt globally.
What did the UN and the WMO say about El Niño?
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” Guterres said. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said: “El Niño has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.” The WMO, a UN agency, said it has undertaken a “major mobilisation” to circulate its forecasts to as many communities as possible.
How strong is this El Niño?
El Niño changes weather patterns around the world, pushing some regions into drought while others experience stronger typhoons and flooding. In the Pacific’s key monitoring region, surface temperatures have been well over 2C above average in recent weeks, putting the event on track to be declared “very strong”. Forecasts suggest monthly sea surface temperatures could approach 4C above average, which would make it the strongest El Niño since at least 1950. Below the surface of the Pacific, temperatures in some places are more than 8C above average. Above-normal sea temperatures are also expected in the Indian Ocean, the tropical Atlantic and around parts of the Australian coast, as heat pushes up power consumption: energy demand grew 4.83% in March.
Which regions are forecast to face drought?
The WMO expects significant changes in rainfall patterns over the next few months. Drier-than-usual conditions are forecast across large areas of South East Asia, Central America and northern parts of South America, increasing the risk of droughts and wildfires. On Thursday, the number of vessels passing through the Panama Canal will be reduced by more than 10% in anticipation of lower rainfall. About 14,000 ships a year use the waterway, a key source of income for Panama worth about $3bn a year.
What is happening in Indonesia and China?
Indonesia is racing to contain wildfires that have burned more than 107,000 hectares nationwide this dry season. Darwin Romy, a resident of Central Kalimantan, told BBC News Indonesia he had been experiencing wildfires “for more than a month”. “The smoke has become quite thick. When we step outside, our eyes start to sting,” he said. Authorities said they are deploying cloud-seeding aircraft to trigger rains, and the government has promised resources to contain the fires and arrested dozens of people over allegations of using fire to clear land. China expects seven typhoons to make landfall this year, which its experts have linked to the effects of a super El Niño; in July alone it recorded typhoons Bavi, Noul and Maysak, which left dozens dead.
What does El Niño mean for Australia?
Dr Alistair Hobday, chief researcher at Australia’s science agency, told the BBC that marine heatwave forecasts indicate the Great Barrier Reef will be spared the worst of the conditions, giving coral there more time to recover. “[But] Southern Australia is getting slammed. It had an algal bloom last year, it’s got bird flu now, and it looks like marine heatwaves will be stronger there this summer,” he said. The last time a marine heatwave hit South Australia and Tasmania, the regions saw starving penguins, fish kills, suffocating algae outbreaks and jellyfish invasions. Australia has introduced early warning systems for marine crises, allowing time for financial relief for fisheries and increased coral monitoring.
Frequently asked questions
How strong could this El Niño be?
The WMO says it could be the strongest since at least 1950. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific’s key monitoring region have been more than 2C above average in recent weeks, and monthly readings could approach 4C above average.
How long will this El Niño last?
The World Meteorological Organization says it could last until at least February 2027, with significant changes in rainfall patterns expected over the next few months.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean and is linked to a change in wind patterns, allowing warm water to spread eastwards and release heat into the atmosphere.
Why is the Panama Canal reducing ship traffic?
More than 10% fewer vessels will pass through the canal on Thursday in anticipation of lower rainfall. About 14,000 ships a year use the waterway, which brings Panama about $3bn a year.
With reporting from BBC News.
Stock image, not from the events described. City Skyline — Joe deSousa / Wikimedia Commons (CC0 1.0)
