In recent weeks, the cases of coronavirus began to increase again in Europe, which generates an alert among specialists in Argentina who warn that an increase is also possible at the local level that could overlap with seasonal outbreaks of other respiratory diseases such as the flu. .
“What is happening is that there is an increase in cases in several European countries in line with the increase in the prevalence of the Ómicron BA.2 subvariant,” he told Télam. the bioinformatician from the National University of Córdoba (UNC) and Conicet researcher, Rodrigo Quiroga.
The specialist explained that “in the last two weeks Switzerland, Finland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom had an increase of more than 40%; while Austria, Italy, France, Belgium, Ireland and Greece have had increases of between 25 and 50% in the last week”.
According Ourworldindata.org, in all Europe is reporting an average of 980 daily cases per million inhabitants, while at the beginning of March the daily average was between 800 and 860 cases per million.
In some countries the increase already exceeds the maximum reached at the Omicron peak.
In some countries the increase already exceeds the maximum reached at the peak of Omicronlike in Austriawhich has almost 5,000 daily notifications per million inhabitants, while during the high point of the previous wave they did not reach 4,000 daily cases per million.
As well Germany It presents an average of 2,400 daily cases per million, a figure similar to what had been reached at the peak of February.
Other countriesalthough they are far from the peaks reached in the previous wave, recorded a rise in recent weeks.
Francefor example, currently has about 1,100 daily average notifications per million inhabitants, although at the end of January it had reached about 5,400 and then managed to drop to 770 at the beginning of March.
The same goes for him United Kingdom which is at more than 1,100 average cases per million, against 800 at the beginning of March.
The causes
“There are several factors that can influence the fact that cases are rising; on the one hand there is evidence that BA.2 is more contagious, on the other care was relaxed. As well Several months have passed since the application of the reinforcements and we know that after 10 weeks the protection against symptomatic infection is lower than when it was just placed,” Quiroga said.
In this context, he pointed out that “although vaccines protect against serious illness and death, having many cases of Covid-19 would still represent many hospitalizations and deaths that would be added to those caused by other respiratory infections circulating in the country. For example , Omicron’s wave caused at least 10,000 deaths in the country.”
The researcher described that Englandfor example, among those over 85 there are already more hospitalized per day currently than at the peak of the Omicron wave (the BA.1 variant, which was the one that drove the last wave around the world).
“Although vaccines protect against serious illness and death, having many cases of Covid-19 would still represent many hospitalizations and deaths that would be added to those caused by other respiratory infections”Rodrigo Quiroga
Bearing in mind that there are studies that indicate that the BA.2 subvariant is more contagious than BA.1, Quiroga maintained that “we have to see what happens in the coming weeks” in Argentina, although he clarified that “in the next wave we could have a similar number or even more cases than the last one we went through in January.
In the same way, the doctor of mathematics Daniel Penazziindicated that “The cases could increase over time and in the face of the entry of the BA.2 we could have a scenario with many cases because it is more contagious and has a higher viral load than BA.1″.
“But also,” he added, “we are entering winter, we have more time since the booster was given (especially older people took the last dose in December) and in between we have the increase in cases of flu, which can leave the weakest people.
As analyzed the accountant Martin Barrionuevo, on the Argentina only 40% of the population applied the third dose or the reinforcement against the coronavirus.
“With both BA.1 and BA.2 protection against symptomatic infection falls to less than 50% ten weeks after the booster dose. Protection against severe disease falls from 90% to 75% at ten weeks of booster , so it is important to apply it,” Quiroga said.
How to take care of yourself
For the infectious disease doctor Javier Farina, “the conjunction of low temperatures, influenza and a new wave of Covid-19 can generate a complex scenario for the national health system, not in intensive care units, but perhaps on demand for consultations, oxygen and hospitalization”.
“We have tools to reduce the impact of the new waves because we learned, the issue is that we lose them from the axis due to the fatigue caused by the pandemic. We think that it no longer makes sense to apply them and on the contrary, we should use them to reduce the impact” , assured Farina, a member of the Argentine Society of Infectious Diseases (SADI) and head of infectology at the Cuenca Alta Hospital in Cañuelas.
Prevention measures for coronavirus serve as protection against all respiratory infections: ventilation of environments, use of a mask in closed places and hand washing.
The specialist asked to take into account that although hospitalized people are fewer in proportion to cases, “we continue to accumulate deaths”, so “everything possible” should be done to reduce the circulation of the virus.
Finally, he recalled that the prevention measures for coronavirus serve as protection against all respiratory infections: ventilation of environments, use of a mask in closed places and hand washing.
