The behavior of the exchange market is sending a clear signal. Unlike the upward trend that predominated in 2025 – when the exchange rate went from 61.32 pesos per dollar at the end of 2024 to 63.30 pesos on December 31, 2025, with peaks that far exceeded 64 pesos -, so far in 2026 the dynamic has reversed, especially starting this month, until it is currently below pesos per dollar. dollar.
If we interpret the language of the market correctly, this turn can have various explanations. The highest level reached by the dollar at the end of 2025 could have responded to a greater demand for foreign currency as a risk hedging mechanism, to capital outflows or a lower inflow of flows, to inflationary expectations, to external pressures linked to the behavior of the dollar in the international market or to the uncertainty associated with the fiscal front.
However, the reduction of the rate to levels below 62 pesos per dollar offers encouraging signs. It could be indicating less pressure on international reserves, an increase in confidence in monetary policy, better fiscal prospects and a strengthening of foreign exchange earnings, whether from exports, remittances or foreign investment.
How has the market reacted to this new reality? Everything indicates that, by accepting a rate lower than the previous peak, economic agents are assuming a scenario of contained volatility and not a crisis. This is not a haphazard adjustment, but a correction within manageable parameters. In other words, the appreciation of the peso suggests that currency flows remain solid and that there is confidence in both monetary policy and the Central Bank’s ability to manage liquidity and intervene in a timely manner if necessary.
In summary, the figures indicate that during 2025 the market showed greater nervousness, while in 2026 the perception of risk seems to moderate, as if the most adverse scenario had been left behind.
