The cold percentage figures that the presidential candidates have reached for now—only one of the 38 exceeds double digits—suggest that the general elections could be extended beyond April 12. Given this possibility, Ipsos carried out a survey to Peru21 which simulates four scenarios of an eventual second round of elections.
If the trend of the latest polls continues, the Renovación Popular candidate, Rafael López Aliaga, today first in voting intention with 12% – as revealed by the latest Ipsos poll published last Thursday the 12th in this newspaper – would ensure his presence in the second elections scheduled for June 7. But how would the former mayor do in the polls when facing another candidate individually?
Ipsos asked Peruvians who they would vote for if Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori had to define the presidency in the second round. 39% leaned toward the Renovación Popular candidate and 20% would choose the leader of Fuerza Popular. In this confrontation, 37% would vote blank, invalid or would not vote for any of them.
Peruvians would also elect López Aliaga as president (37%) if he reached a second round with Carlos Álvarez (24%), the candidate of País Para Todos. Here the white and tainted vote reaches 34%
An eventual second round between the Renovación Popular candidate and Alfonso López-Chau, from Ahora Nación, would mark the victory of the former mayor with a much more marked difference: 41% over 15% of the former rector of the University of Engineering. In this confrontation the vote of rejection towards the two candidates, the white and flawed one, grows to 38%
But if López Aliaga and José Luna Gálvez, from Podemos Perú, were to meet in an eventual second round, the scenario, although it also favors the current leader in the polls who would win with 39% against 14% of the investigated owner of Telesup, the white and tainted vote would prevail over these two candidates (42%).
