Grain production in Brazil is forecast to reach 353.4 million tons in the 2025/26 harvest, a result that, if confirmed, will again be a record, with “slight growth” of 0.3% compared to the 2024/25 cycle.
The projection is included in the 5th Grain Harvest Survey, released this Thursday (12) by the National Supply Company (Conab), and takes into account the beginning of the harvest of first-crop crops.
According to the company, the planted area should reach 83.3 million hectares, a result 1.9% higher than that recorded in the previous cycle. This percentage corresponds to an increase of 1.5 million hectares.
“The national average productivity of crops tends to show a decline of 1.5%, going from 4,310 kilos per hectare in 2024/25 to 4,244 kilos per hectare in 2025/26”, details Conab.
Soy
The survey projects a record harvest of 178 million tons of soybeans – an increase of 6.5 million tons compared to the previous cycle.
According to the company, the good result is due to the weather conditions in the main producing regions.
“The oilseed harvest has already started in most states and reaches 17.4% of the area, a higher percentage compared to the same period last year and slightly below the average of the last five years, as indicated by the Harvest Progress released this week by the state-owned company”, added Conab.
In Mato Grosso, 46.8% of soybean production has already been harvested. According to Conab, the productivity obtained – in what is the largest oilseed producer in the country – is close to the estimates that had been initially presented.
Corn
Projections for corn production show a decline of 1.9%, compared to the previous cycle. Conab estimates a total harvest, covering all cycles, of 138.4 million tons of grain.
“Even with an estimated reduction in production at the end of the current cycle, the cultivation of the first cereal crop shows an increase of 7.2% in area, estimated at 4 million hectares, and production at 26.7 million tons, an increase of 7.1% over the previous harvest”, informed the company.
Regarding the second corn harvest, the total area used for cultivation, which has already started planting, is 17.9 million hectares. Projected production is 109.3 million tons.
Rice and beans
In the case of rice, a product whose sowing is practically completed, expectations are for a reduction of 11.6% in the cultivation area, reaching 1.6 million hectares.
The largest producer of this grain is the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which already has its crops in full development.
The water sources that supply the state’s producers recovered, after a period of reduced levels. Production estimated by Conab is 10.9 million tons of rice.
Bean production should be in the range of 3 million tons, combined with the three harvests. The first, with a forecast reduction of 11.4% in the planted area, totaling 804.7 thousand hectares; and production estimated at 967.2 thousand tons (9% lower than that obtained in the previous harvest).
Cotton
The survey indicates a production of 3.8 million tons of cotton for the current harvest, in a total area covering 2 million hectares (3.2% lower than that used in the 2024/25 harvest). Conab recalls that 88.1% of the areas destined for the plume have already been sown.
For the 2025/26 corn season, the expectation is that there will be a new increase in both exports and domestic consumption, with estimates of 46.5 million tons and 94.5 million tons respectively. Even with the increase, grain transit stocks, in January 2027, should remain at around 12 million tons.
